I really like the fit with Joey Aguilar running Josh Heupel's offense. We haven't really seen what Georgia truly has this season, with the Bulldogs playing two tune up games leading up to this one. Tennessee will be down its top two cornerbacks this week, and the Bulldogs' defense looks like it will once again be one of the best in the country. Kirby Smart has been dominant against the Vols, going 8-1 ATS in the last nine matchups.

Georgia hasn’t shown what their possibly capable of on offense to this point. However, their defense has only allowed a combined 13 points to their opponents while the Volunteers have allowed 43 points. Kirby Smart is 8-1 SU in his Georgia career against the Volunteers while also being 8-1 ATS.

Georgia QB Gunner Stockton has not played in a hostile environment anywhere close to this. He can breathe easier from the absence of injured Tennessee CBs Jermod McCoy, a preseason All-America, and Rickey Gibson. George opened by breezing past Marshall and Austin Peay, which means coach Kirby Smart has shown the Vols little strategically of what they'll get from him today. Recent history in a series is often overemphasized, but this cannot be ignored: The Bulldogs have won the last eight matchups, all by double digits, and have covered in six straight.

Under coach Josh Heupel, the Volunteers have averaged just 14.3 points a game against Kirby Smart's Bulldogs defense. In addition, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton makes his first true road start. That combination keeps this game Under.

Kirby Smart has had success against this Tennessee offense in his career, and I can't help but feel Vols fans are spiking the football a bit early with Joey Aguilar considering who they've played. Georgia's defense looks elite again and can overwhelm the Tennessee OL.

Call it a homer pick, but I can't understand a different outcome. The public is overreacting to Georgia's performance against their first two FCS opponents, where they weren't putting up 60 points. One thing we know about Kirby Smart is he is not airing out the playbook for anyone. This will be the first time we see the Bulldogs use their shiny new transfers, as they face off a Tennessee defense without their best two cornerbacks. I think this line should still be where it opened, the steam to Tennessee after playing two weak opponents is giving us great value.

This line moved from 7.5 to 3.5 with no buyback yet on UGA. Even though I find it odd that the Bulldogs have been stuck on -3.5, I have to jump on them at that number. Georgia is known to sleepwalk vs. inferior opponents and we saw that last week vs. Austin Peay. I also think Kirby Smart has been holding things back the first couple of games knowing he faced Tennessee in Week 3. Look for QB Gunner Stockton to be much more aggressive this week with Tennessee down its two starting corners. I have to take UGA based purely on my numbers.