Alabama should be improved top to bottom in Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer, who not only has Ryan Grubb back by his side after one year of separation but a quarterback in Ty Simpson whose five-star pedigree, big arm and dual-threat speed will open the offensive playbook (though the neophyte does have have to prove his worth still). The difference in this game, though, will be on defense where the Crimson Tide should dominate. This line should be 3-6 points higher; we're getting a brand and road game discount.

The jury is still out on new Alabama starter Ty Simpson, but he will be surrounded by a potentially great offensive line elite playmakers, and the Tide will once again be a force on defense. Florida State should be better than they were in 2024 (that's not saying much), but they will be outclassed in this early season matchup. FSU QB Thomas Castellanos added fuel to Alabama's fire with his commentary this week. Look for the Tide to control the line of scrimmage and notch a blowout win on Saturday.

I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Alabama this season, and I think they will use this opportunity to run it up late. My simulations make this line -17 for the Crimson Tide.

A national title contender versus a team coming off a two-win season would seem to yield a higher spread. True, QB Ty Simpson gets his first start for Alabama in hostile conditions, and the Crimson Tide might miss a pair of key injured players. Still, their depth is to tie for, while Simpson's style of play might suit the offensive approch more than did the acclaimed Jalen Milroe a season ago. FSU is rebuilding from the ground up, with a nearly new O-line that could be manhandled. Bama coach Kalen DeBoer is renowned for strong second seasons at his stops, while the Tide is notorious for quick starts, having gone 9-1 ATS in openers the past 10 seasons.

"Oh how I hate Florida State" ... but with the hook we are gonna have to. That's what I told myself, only if it got to 14.5 would we dance. New Noles QB Thomas Castellanos has really been mouthing off about Alabama, so he's either going to be awesome or carted off in the first five minutes, in my opinion. FSU should be light years better than last season, although I'd joyfully sign up for 2-10 again. I actually don't think it's out of the question they win outright here. Alabama is just not the same post-Saban (almost said Satan) and frankly I think has massively downgraded at QB with Ty Simpson as the new starter. And their leading returning rusher, Jam Miller, is out.

Florida State's roster looks more like a mid-tier ACC roster with each passing season. It will be extremely evident when Alabama comes to town Saturday and blows the doors off the Noles. This line should be closer to three touchdowns than two.

New offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will have better days in Tallahassee, but Saturday won't be one of them. With wet weather possibly an issue, look for the Crimson Tide's experienced defense to hold the Seminoles' offense in check. Alabama 27, Florida State 13.

I've been sitting on this spread for a while, although my guess is the number goes higher during the week. I expect FSU to be improved this season but have the Tide -16 in this matchup. I put a lot of weight (pun intended) into offensive lines early in the season and Alabama has a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ty Simpson enters the year as a question mark but look for the Alabama front to wear down FSU's defense and cover the big number. I'll lay the 13.5 now in case it climbs above the key number of 14 later.