This has not been an easy game for Texas in recent years and no indictor this one is going to be any different, as ISU has picked up the pace this season along with frosh QB Rocco Becht getting more comfy in the job. Sarkisian has failed to cover last two years in this series, was routed 30-7 at Ames in 2021, and Cyclones have now covered last three meetings. Horns only 1-4 vs. spread last five in 2023, while ISU has now won and covered four of last five this season. Play Iowa State

When Iowa State lost 10-7 at home to Ohio to fall to 1-2, I thought the Cyclones were going to be horrible and the shine was off Matt Campbell. No thanks from a Michigan State perspective. Now? What an amazing job he has done, and ISU has a shot at the Big 12 title game. The Horns lost arguably the nation's top running back, Jonathan Brooks, to a season-ending injury last week. It will be cold in Ames (duh) for the 8 ET kickoff (student section will be bonkers) and that usually means running the ball is vital. Texas has looked shaky in its past two Big 12 road games and hasn't even left the state since the win at Alabama. Also like Under.

Texas and Iowa State are two of the top defenses in the Big 12 but they're also two teams that aren't great at turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Also, if Iowa State is going to give Texas an upset scare it's got to be a low-scoring game so look for the Cyclones to factor that in to their gameplan.

How will Texas' offense respond without leading rusher Jonathan Brooks, who tore his ACL last week? Eight straight meetings between these two teams have gone under, the under has hit in Texas' last six against unranked teams, and in eight of the last nine Iowa State home games. Let the trends continue on Saturday night. Texas 24, Iowa State 20.