Keep your eye on this line as kickoff approaches as it appears that it may drop to Kansas State by a field goal without the hook. KSU dominated this matchup last season, and while the teams have split their last 10 meetings, the Wildcats look like the far more competent team through two weeks in 2023. Mizzou's lack of aggressiveness -- it's one of four FBS teams to not attempt a fourth down this season -- is hindering what could be a productive offense. However, it now goes up against its toughest defensive test yet. With the market pushing this line down significantly, I like Kansas State as the play. Again, try to wait for -3.

I was hoping this line would drop to -3, but I'm very comfortable laying the 3.5 points. Despite the loss of RB Deuce Vaughn, the Wildcats remain underrated behind dual-threat quarterback Will Howard and physical offensive and defensive lines. Their 42-13 victory over Troy was an impressive performance. Kansas State leads the country in rushing defense, allowing just 38.0 yards per game, and should have enough pieces to slow a Tigers team that struggled against Middle Tennessee. I'm expecting a closer game than last year when the Wildcats blew out Missouri, 40-12, but Kansas State still covers.

The purple inhabitants of the Little Apple are underrated. Mizzou is good but not good enough. I'm laying the points.

Missouri has won both its games this season but didn’t cover home games against South Dakota or Middle Tennessee. They lost 40-12 at Kansas State last season. Kansas State wiped out both their opponents and was led by senior QB Will Howard who has all five of his offensive line starters returning from last season as well as the tight end. Kansas State is cheap here, I laid the points.

Kansas State's defense has been excellent through two weeks and Missouri has lacked the kind of explosiveness that suggests they can change that trend. And while Missouri's defense is strong and will cause problems for Will Howard and Kansas State's offense, anything under a touchdown is disrespectful to the reigning Big 12 champs.

Missouri is the Show Me State and the Tigers are playing at home in Columbia. I'm a big fan of Kansas State HC Chris Klieman but I'm taking the home dog in the border state rivalry. The Tigers have my 19th best defense in the country compared to the Wildcats at 42nd. The Tigers 58-32-5 all-time series advantage however Kansas State has won the last two games. Give me the home dog with the better defense and reveng.