Thunderstorms await these teams, which could mean a modest score despite Liberty's recent fade on defense and a number of players from the unit defecting. The Flames' offense took a recent step back with a season-ending injury to RB Dae Dae Hunter and never regained its footing. Toledo yielded the third fewest points among MAC members. The only opponent Liberty permitted more than the mid-20s to before coach Hugh Freeze began his distracting dalliance with the Auburn job was 37 to potent Wake Forest.

Liberty has lost its last three games, lost head coach Hugh Freeze and lost several key players to the transfer portal. The Flames lost at UConn and at home to Virginia Tech and New Mexico State in their last three. Morale is down. Toledo comes off a MAC Championship win against Ohio, ending a five-game non-cover streak. The key reason to pick against Liberty was how bad the defense was in its last game, losing to New Mexico State, 49-14, using three quarterbacks. Liberty is not the same team that started the season 8-1. Toledo covers.

Boca Raton Bowl. Liberty fell apart at the end of the season with Hugh Freeze rumors swirling and of course he left for Auburn. That has to affect the Flames' offense as he was the play-caller. In that season-ending three-game skid, Liberty really struggled to stop the run, and that plays right into MAC champion Toledo's wheelhouse. The Flames also lost a couple of starting defenders to the portal.

The Flames should be super focused after dropping their last three games by a combined -87.5 ATS margin. Liberty owns the better offensive line (No. 70 vs. No. 73), defensive line (No. 10 vs. No. 24), special teams (No. 37 vs. No. 120), and total defense (No. 44 vs. No. 61) at Football Outsiders. Liberty has superior metrics against fellow bowlers, and the Flames' defense leads the nation in tackles for a loss (109). Liberty is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as underdogs, while the Rockets are 2-7 ATS against winning teams of late. Take Liberty plus the points.