There's nothing too wrong with Wisconsin being favored, but the Badgers getting nearly a full TD is quite odd. Perhaps oddsmakers know something we don't with the line hardly changing despite 83% of the bets being on Notre Dame +6. I'd expect Wisconsin to be -3 at home in Camp Randall Stadium, not -6 in Soldier Field, which will be filled equally with Fighting Irish fans. Notre Dame is 0-5 as an underdog away from home since 2018, losing those games by a double-digit average. Yet, this team is not those teams. The Irish have the better quarterback and offensive weapons. Wisconsin is 124th out of 130 teams in finishing drives. When it comes to covering a TD, that's a problem.

The wrong team might be favored. Wisconsin was able to bully Eastern Michigan the last time out, but it doesn't change the fact that this Badgers offense has shown little to no explosive potential. Graham Mertz has not played well since a hot start to the 2020 season, and it's not entirely his fault since the Badgers have no big-play weapons at the receiver spot. Notre Dame has struggled itself, but it has far more weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and we can't overlook the Jack Coan Revenge Game factor.

I know that Notre Dame has been one of the most disappointing 3-0 teams in the country so far, but it still has plenty of power. Starting quarterback Jack Coan will know exactly what to expect from the Badgers defense after beginning his career in Madison. Fighting Irish star safety Kyle Hamilton will prevent the Badgers from stretching the field deep and the front seven will shut down the Badgers rushing attack enough to get a cover. Consider a moneyline sprinkle if you’re so inclined.

This spread frankly shocks me -- remember, the game is in Chicago, not Madison. Is Wisconsin good enough to win? Absolutely, and the Badgers have an advantage of coming off a bye week. But the Irish getting this many points? This smells like a low-scoring matchup decided by a field goal so I'll happily take 6.5. For what it's worth, Notre Dame is 9-0 SU in Shamrock Series games, which this is.

Wisconsin is getting an undeserved rating boost for its defense being ranked No. 1 against the run (33 ypg) and No. 2 in total yards allowed (194 ypg). The Badgers wiped out a bad Eastern Michigan team last week after losing to Penn State in their opener. They need to do something more creative offensively to beat Notre Dame, and QB Graham Mertz (no touchdowns, two interceptions) isn’t the guy that will accomplish the feat. Former Badgers QB Jack Coan will make the big plays and the Fighting Irish will cover.