This is not a pick for Alabama to win, it's taking the points in what should be a tight game between two of the best teams in the nation. Though I no longer have the full six points, this one between the Tide and Tigers should come down to the wire, and I am expecting a back-and-forth affair. Though Alabama is playing at home, LSU has been tested with one of the toughest schedules in the nation to this point. We saw what it did in the second half against Florida, and we've seen how Tua Tagovailoa looks when he's not 100%. I do think Alabama wins this game, but I think LSU covers ... and I wish I had the full six.

The average total over the last 10 years is 46.5, and nine of those 10 games went Under the total. Tua Tagovailoa (ankle) is nowhere near 100 percent, and his ankle will wear down as the game goes on. This is a big key to the game and the total as Nick Saban and his staff will be very conservative. Alabama's defense ranks 14th and LSU's 18th in term of yards per play allowed. Take the Under.

The Under is the strong play here as both teams are very strong defensively. Tua Tagovailoa is recovering from ankle surgery, and his mobility will be in question. Take advantage of the inflated number due to early season offensive numbers from both teams. Grab the Under.

The unknown Saturday comes into play with how effective Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be. In years past, he has been able to come back and not skip a beat. Yet, Saturday’s challenge is much different. Alabama’s dominance over LSU has featured several blowouts and a win over the Tigers in seven straight years. Look for the Tigers to finally challenge the Crimson Tide and cover.

Since when does supporting Alabama as less than a touchdown favorite against an SEC opponent put you in the minority? On Saturday against LSU, evidently. It's not often the Crimson Tide can play the "no respect" card, but it might be applicable in this case. Never have so many analysts proclaimed their affinity for an Alabama opponent in a big spot, and the spread has moved south of a key number. Tua Tagovailoa saw his Heisman chances ruined by an injury-shortened, poor performance last season. He makes up for it in this one.

We don't know enough about the status of Tua Tagovailoa to allow me to be comfortable taking any side. What we do know is that Tua was still banged up a month after suffering this same injury last year, and this time it's only been three weeks. Odds are he won't be 100 percent, and that will hurt Alabama's offense. Then there's the LSU offense which showed it can be slowed down against Auburn, and Nick Saban's had an extra week to prepare for it. This isn't going to be the shootout the total suggests.

The Crimson Tide will take the blueprint that Auburn used two weeks ago against the LSU offense and build off it. They won't let those talented wide receivers get deep into the downfield routes, and keep the game in front of them. On the other side, LSU will take away the slants enough to keep it close and keep Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (yes, he's playing) in the pocket. The Tide will win, but LSU keeps it within the number.

It looks like Alabama star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be ready, but there could be a bit of rust after he missed essentially two games. The Crimson Tide defense hasn't looked as dominant as it has in past years. LSU is storming into Tuscaloosa armed with one of the best passing attacks in the country behind a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback.

Alabama has won the last eight meetings and nine of the last 10 have stayed Under the total. This is the highest total I’ve ever seen posted in this series. Both teams come in averaging more than 46 ppg, which is why the total is so high. But the LSU and Alabama defenses combine to allow only 36 ppg. I look for the defenses to better than the offenses and keep this one Under the total.

Forget about LSU’s ramped-up offense, as hard as that may be. Dismiss Alabama’s array of skill-position standouts and the possible return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from an ankle injury, as difficult as that seems. Defensive battles, or at least modest offensive displays, are ingrained in this series as the last five meetings have had combined scores below 47 and resulted in Unders. What truly is challenging to envision is defensive-minded Alabama coach Nick Saban engaging in a shootout.