The total is creeping up here and my model doesn't agree with that movement. You can now get the first half total at 28, a very significant number. Florida State is loaded with big play potential which is always scary when fading points, but I think it will take both squads a few series to settle in. I see this total at 21 to 27 in the first half, so I like the Under 28.

After a disappointing 2017 season, Jimbo Fisher bolted for Texas A&M. New Florida State Coach Willie Taggart will attempt to restabilize carry-over recruits and revitalize the squad. It won't be easy as it faces a Virginia Tech team with rising sophomore quarterback Josh Jackson. But the Hokies have an issue with leaving the door ajar for opponents to sneak through. Look for the Seminoles' halftime adjustments to result in a pull-away spread cover.

In Bud Foster we trust. Virginia Tech's renowned defensive coordinator must replace seven starters, but Carson's track record suggests his unit will give FSU fits. Tech's defense was mainly responsible for five Unders in six of the final 2017 games. 'Noles quarterback Deondre Francois is gifted but unseasoned, having suffered a year-ending injury in last season's opener. For now, you would take Tech quarterback Justin Jackson over Francois. First-year FSU Coach Willie Taggart sports an impressive ATS record in season openers, but Tech represents a big step up.

Sophomore QB Josh Jackson is one of 13 starters returning for the Hokies. Last season Jackson threw for 2,991 yards in 13 games, the team winning nine. He had 20 TD passes and only nine picks. He led the team with six rushing TDs and gained 324 yards. The strongest part of this team is its defense, which allowed only 15 ppg last season. I have both these teams rated equally and the 'Noles home field certainly isn't worth 7.5 points. Virginia Tech offers the value.

Florida State was one of the most overrated teams in the market last season, and it appears as though oddsmakers are determined to pick up where they left off. Willie Taggart makes his debut as head coach and a change in philosophy always takes an adjustment period. Deondre Francois will help the offense, but the defense still needs improvement. Virginia Tech should be the more polished team at this point, and this rates to be a one-score game Monday night. Take the points.

While I generally don't make picks based solely off trends, some are a lot harder to ignore than others. Virginia Tech has been a strong Under team for years now. In fact, over the last 10 seasons, the Under has gone 56-28 in Tech's conference games. That's hard to ignore.

Florida State's off-season has been all about new coach Willie Taggart. There's a new level of excitement around the program as well. Now, he hasn't named a starting QB, but both Deondre Francois and James Blackman are more than capable of getting the job done. What will be different is that the offense will be more of a spread than the'pro-style attack used under Jimbo Fisher. The Hokies are more apt to slowing that down, especially with plenty of time to prepare.