South Florida had a slow start in their opener on the road, but I'm expecting a dominant performance tonight. Quinton Flowers and the Bulls have an explosive offense that Illinois won't be able to stop. Lay it.

Illinois has looked improved in the early going, but the circumstances of its first two games provided the perfect backdrop for progress -- at home against lesser-talented opponents. The Illini allowed just 244 yards in a 20-7 win against Western Kentucky last week. But a youth-laden defense that starts three freshmen will get a reality check Friday at high-powered South Florida. Quinton Flowers and the Bulls have an explosive offense, and it’s hard to envision the Illini doing enough to keep pace despite this tempting number.

It's a big number, but I like the rested Bulls to cover in front of a national TV audience. There is no comparison between these teams offensively. South Florida is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games and eager to make a statement against a Big . Lay it.

Lovie Smith has the Illini heading in the right direction so far this season with two wins in two games after a 3-9 2016 campaign in his first year. No surprise that it's defense, his specialty, as the catalyst and the unit looked great last week against favored Western Kentucky (-6) in a 20-7 win. They've cut their yardage allowed down almost 100 ypg. But this is their first road game and it's against one of the most balanced offenses in the nation led by QB Quinton Flowers. South Florida has won seven straight, but have failed to cover its last three. I'm looking for Illinois to give USF some problems and took the points.

The projection model sees the improved Illini staying within two touchdowns or closer to South Florida in about 60 percent of simulations, offering a string position on the road underdog. The Illini were touchdown home underdogs last weekend against Western Kentucky, but instead routed Western Kentucky 20-7. Look for another inspired performance Friday.

The Illini defense has been the story so far of its season. It has done a great job on both ends. The defense could take advantage of an offense in USF that has a propensity for slow starts. Take Illinois and the points.

I'm projecting 63 points for Illinois-South Florida on Friday night, giving us a strong lean to the Over. The Over is cashing in 66 percent of my simulations.