How much is home-court worth in college basketball? Certainly not 14 points -- which is what SMU lost by to the Cardinals on Jan. 31. But the Mustangs simply are a different club at home at 14-2, with their two losses by five total points. And that first score was misleading with SMU leading by at the half in Louisville. The Cards are 2-5 ATS away. I wouldn't go any lower than this, but our model has a one-point UofL victory. We can't lose on a 4-point play at least.