Normally, by now, we would have seen some indication that Tom Izzo's Michigan State was capable of making a serious run in the Dance. This season, however, not yet, as the Spartans never really uncorked the extended win streak many were expecting, a disappointment for a team ranked consensus ten in preseason. With 14 losses, Izzo looks beatable, especially as Mississippi State does the same things defensively for Chris Jans as Michigan State does for Izzo, and the Bulldogs have a solid inside-outside with 6-11 Tolu Smith (15.2 ppg) and electric frosh G Josh Hubbard (17.1 ppg). Miss State also impressed in Nashville last week, whipping SEC top seed Tennessee and pushing eventual tourney winner Auburn. Play Miss State (NCAA at Charlotte)

The core of Michigan State's roster has played in, and won, some huge games of consequence. The issue and why they are in the 8-9 game is that they didn't play close enough to their ceiling to avoid catching a lot of losses on a difficult schedule. I think this game will be low-scoring, defensive and physical with each rebound being a war. The difference will be that Michigan State has two offensive playmakers in AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker who can and have made big shots in the biggest games.

My simulations make Michigan State -3.5 favorites in this early start neutral site game. Both teams play at a very similar pace as both are better defensively than offensively. I give Michigan State the edge on the offensive glass and at the free throw line.

Mississippi state was BAD before they had a nice win the SEC tourney. Meanwhile Mich State is playing their best ball of the season . Izzo is worth at least 2 possessions.

The Bulldogs have the ingredients to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Electric freshman guard Josh Hubbard has averaged 25.4 points over his last eight games, which includes a win over Tennessee and a two-point loss to Kentucky. Six-foot-11 senior Tolu Smith will be a matchup problem for Michigan State. The Spartans rely on their 3-point shooting but will find it challenging against a Bulldogs team holding opponents to 29.4 percent from deep (7th nationally). Grab the points.

Each team won just two of its last seven games. However, both teams have had their signature moments. Mississippi State beat Tennesee, while Michigan State almost knocked off Purdue twice (covering both). The bottom line to me is the Spartans have the edge with Tom Izzo's coaching. In addition, he has a way with referees that he'll get the borderline call toward the end of the game.