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North Texas and UAB will meet for fourth time this season Thursday in the NIT championship. The Mean Green have the season edge with two wins, but the Blazers won the most important and more recent matchup in their conference tournament. North Texas may have two victories over Power Five schools in Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, but UAB knows how to attack its top-rated defense. Look for the Blazers to finish off the task Wisconsin blew. Take the Blazers.
Give me a cougar-paced offense (UAB, tied for 19th most possessions per game) against a snail-paced one (North Texas, dead last) anytime. The Mean Green is 2-1 straight up against the Blazers this season. However, the first win came with UAB star Jordan Walker out. The second decision happened in double-overtime, and UAB was outscored at the foul line 23-5. The Blazers semi-evened the score in the CUSA tournament as Walker combined for 52 points in the latter two matchups. Mean Green forward Abou Ousmane, their top rebounder and a double-digit scorer, participated in all three games and will sit out here. Wisconsin essentially gifted North Texas its semifinal win by falling into a coma the last 10 minutes.
Amazingly, this is the FOURTH meeting between UAB and North Texas this year. Fifteen of the last 16 Blazers games have gone over this total because they like to play FAST (they rank 19th in possessions per game with 74.8). North Texas, known for their defense (best in the country), gave up 41 points in the first half on Tuesday against Wisconsin before the Badgers melted down in the final nine minutes. The first two games between these rivals produced 115 and 124 regulation points (North Texas wins) before their matchup in the conference tournament, in which UAB won 76-69. I believe the winner will dictate the pace, and since I lean UAB, I think they score 70+ in a close win that hits the mid-130s.
NIT title game from Las Vegas on Thursday and the fourth meeting this season between the C-USA foes. North Texas won the first two and UAB the most recent in the C-USA Tournament. This will be the last game as members of that league with both (and others) headed to the AAC next season. The Mean Green haven't had big man Abou Ousmane in this tournament other than the opener for personal reasons, and he's not expected here. He was huge in the two UNT wins over UAB during the season. His absence is the difference for me.