UConn is peaking at the right time and showing confidence on both sides of the ball. Arkansas lost four of its last five before the NCAAs started. The Huskies allowed 39% shooting in their first two NCAA games and cruised with easy wins, while shooting efficiently. They are the well-oiled machine right now. Take Connecticut to cover.

I was leaning toward taking the points and Arkansas, but now I'm too concerned about the foot injury to excellent Hogs freshman Anthony Black (12.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg). He was a full participant in Arkansas' practice Wednesday, but he was moving gingerly on his left foot and wearing a walking boot. While I'm sure Black will give it a go (books aren't offering any props on him yet), if he's clearly less than 100 percent it's going to be very tough to pull the upset. And I don't like 4 points as a number (too many meaningless late free throws can affect an ATS result) so we'll do the moneyline while still under -200. KenPom ranks UConn as the No. 4 team nationally with fully healthy Arkansas No. 18.

Both teams are very well coached and four points appears to be too many. Yes, All-Big East first-team forward Adama Sanogo will be tough to handle for Arkansas, but as long as UConn's perimeter players don't explode the Hogs should be able to keep this close and are live to pull off the upset.

My sims make the total 144.3 in a matchup that features two teams who will find their way to the free throw line often. Arkansas is best team remaining in the tournament in terms of free throw attempt rate where they were a top five team in the country this season, but they're also one of the worst teams in defensive free throw rate. I'm projecting above average pace as I expect Arkansas to force tempo, and UConn will likely invite it due to a few individual matchups they will see. I'm on the Over here.