Boise State has played some good competition this season in the Mountain West. However, it’s nothing compared to the Big Ten. Northwestern was able to take down Purdue and the Broncos don’t have a player like Zach Edey. Boise State can shoot and play good defense but the struggle protecting the ball. The Wildcats are able to generate turnovers which might take the Broncos out of their rhythm. I’m on Northwestern.

West Region action from Sacramento. KenPom ranks Boise State nine spots higher than Northwestern. Boise State’s veteran-laden starting five has all scored in double figures in six games this season. The only team in Division I to do so more often is Creighton (eight times). All five members of BSU's projected starting lineup have also appeared in an NCAA Tournament game before, one of 10 schools in the country with that experience. I was going to take the ML at a bit better price but that Furman-Virginia ending (still can't believe it) reminded me that one point can very much matter in the Dance.

Northwestern stumbles into March Madness having lost four of its past five games. The Wildcats face a Boise State team that starts four seniors, including sixth year player Marcus Shaver. Although Boise State may have an experience edge, the pace and play of Northwestern will give the Broncos difficulties. Look for another stumble out of the Mountain West as Northwestern edges to victory.

Blind resume time: Team A has a NET Ranking of 41 and has lost four of their last five games. Team B has a NET Ranking of 29 has won five of its final eight games with the three losses to teams also playing in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Team A is Northwestern. Team B is Boise State. I'll confidently take the well-disciplined Broncos to win this game by multiple possessions.

Broncos head coach Leon Rice was a longtime assistant at Gonzaga and the players execute his system to perfection. Boise State holds opponents to just 30% from beyond the arc and have had a top-20 defense two years in a row. Max Rice (Leon's son) has exploded this year, averaging 14 points per game on 42% from 3-point land. He's also shooting 87.7% from the free-throw line. Northwestern is ranked outside the top 250 nationally in points per game (290), 3-point percentage (292) and field-goal percentage (341). The Broncos are 5-2 straight-up in neutral court games, while Northwestern is just 1-2 SU this season. I like the Broncos quite a bit in this spot!

Boise State has never won an NCAA Tournament game (0-8 alltime), but I like the battle-tested Broncos over Northwestern. Both teams are elite defensively: Northwestern ranks 13th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, one spot ahead of Boise State. But the Broncos have more weapons, with five players averaging double figures in scoring. Boise State shoots 45.1 percent from the field, compared to 40.6 percent for the Wildcats. The Broncos also should benefit from the experience of last year's NCAA Tournament appearance.