Nevada comes into the play-in game off three straight losses, not covering any. Arizona State has lost three of their last five. Both teams are very streaky and while the Sun Devils might be more talented, the Wolfpack are have been more efficient on offense this season. They shoot it effectively at 50.5 percent, as compared to Ariana’s State’s 47.5 percent. This game could certainly be back and forth and if it comes down to it, Nevada is the better free-throw shooting team at 79.2 percent to Arizona State’s 68.9 percent this season. There’s been a lot of discussion about how the Wolfpack shouldn’t even be in the tournament and they’ve had to hear all that talk. I’m on Nevada.

The Wolf Pack have lost three straight but two of those should come with an asterisk, as 7-footer Will Baker (13.5 ppg) was dealing with an illness. He only had two touches in Nevada's MWC Tournament loss. He's fully healthy now, and along with Jarod Lucas (17.3 ppg) and Kenan Blackshear (14.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) should keep Nevada close throughout. Nevada shoots 79.1 percent from the free-throw line, which will come in handy versus a talented but erratic Sun Devils team. Take the points.

Nevada was rolling, going 14-0 at home and 19-8 ATS overall. Then they hit the brick wall, losing at Wyoming and then losing its first home game of the season to UNLV, and then being bounced in its first MWC Tourney game to San Jose State. Over the last three games, they were favored by 4 or more in all three and lost all three outright. During the first half of the season Nevada was running with a fast pace, but in their last five other teams are dictating a slower pace and Nevada goes with it, shooting just 41%. ASU is a battler and fought its way into the NCAAs. This should be a close game. I’m on the ASU moneyline.

First Four Wednesday from Dayton. How about a 1-on-1 game between the two coaches, Nevada's Steve Alford and Arizona State's Bobby Hurley, both great college players but their games didn't translate to the NBA (neither did mine, fellas). Frankly, Hurley doesn't even need to scout Nevada because two of his best players, Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington, both transferred in from there last offseason. The Sun Devils rank 15th in the nation and fifth among NCAA Tournament teams holding opponents to just 39.8% shooting from the field. ASU is 9-0 this season when giving up less than 60 points and have held opponents to 40% or less from the field 18 games this season. ASU is 10-0 when opponents shoot under 36%. I'm not even sure Nevada should be in the field over Rutgers or Oklahoma State with the Wolf Pack on a three-game slide.

The Wolfpack have been falling apart as they have lost three straight games to bad teams. The Sun Devils just snuck into the tournament with a win over the USC Trojans in the Pac-12 tournament. The Sun Devils are the better team. Their defense is has held opponents to just 46% effective FG% on the season, 22nd in the nation. I'll take the better defense in this matchup. Take the Sun Devils to move on to the Round of 64.

My sims make the total 139 in this first four matchup. The key metric the simulations favor here is the free throw attempt rate and free throw percentage. Nevada is the best free throw shooting team in the NCAA tournament at 79 percent on the season and very good at getting to the line as they rank inside the top 15 in free throw attempt rate. My computer likes this game to go over with plenty of game extension in the final few minutes.