Do I think Duke's five-star talent wins? I do. Do I think the Blue Devils may fail to cover due to late free throws? No idea. So let's take that out of play.

The Blue Devils are averaging 80.4 points and shooting just under 49 percent from the field this season, both top 15 in the nation. They also rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting at nearly 38 percent, while the Razorbacks are 303rd (31.1). Arkansas star JD Notae has hit just 19 of 63 shots (30 percent) in the tournament, while Duke's Paolo Banchero is 22-of-40 (55 percent). The Blue Devils will fight to keep Coach K's final season going, and they are winning outright in 76 percent of the model's simulations.

Duke has answered in crunch time in consecutive games to topple Michigan State and Texas Tech. In fact, the Blue Devils' effort against the Red Raiders looked like it could be a breakthrough moment. Look for Duke’s hot shooting to continue against an Arkansas team that won’t be able to execute as efficient as it did against Gonzaga. Grab Duke.

Arkansas has won 18 of its last 21 games and has been successful by pushing the pace, helping seven of its last nine get Over the total. The Razorbacks covered the spread in 21 games and also went Over the total in 21 games this season. They also have covered their last five games as an underdog. Duke likes to play fast as well and has gone Over the number in eight of its last nine. I’m betting that this will be the last game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski's amazing career, but I don't like the price on the Arkansas moneyline so I just took the points with the Razorbacks (+4). I equally like the Over.

The Razorbacks have covered five straight as underdogs and I like that streak to continue Saturday versus Duke. The Blue Devils staged an offensive masterpiece down the stretch versus Texas Tech, but that kind of performance is difficult to repeat, especially against another elite defense. Arkansas can run with Duke, and perhaps we'll finally get a more efficient offensive performance from leading scorer JD Notae (19 of 63 in the tournament). Grab the points.