This game reminds me of today's South Dakota State-Providence matchup. Everyone was on the Jackrabbits, who lost, because they so dominated their conference and hadn't lost for many weeks. Vermont has lost just once since Dec. 7 but who have the Catamounts really beaten? No one. Just like SDSU. Vermont played two power schools out of conference and lost both by double digits. I'm planning to play this with UConn over New Mexico State to bring the price down but likely won't post UConn on here unless that comes down a bit (just for our scoring purposes).

Vermont went 28-5 this season, beating opponents by an average of 13 points. Its starting lineup is filled with real men – four senior starters who returned for a fifth season. The Catamounts shoot 35.8 percent from 3-point range and 48.6 percent from the field. Arkansas is going to have to play a great game to win, and I think it will - especially after being humbled in the SEC Tournament by Texas A&M. Still, the Razorbacks are on a 15-3 SU and ATS run. Arkansas gets the cover.

This is a fade of Arkansas playing in the northeast. The Catamounts are playing in the postseason for the ninth time in the last 11 years. Vermont might be from a small conference, but it is a legit threat to a top 20 team. Vermont won its three conference tournament games by 39, 32 and 39 points.

Nobody dares to put Vermont on their non-conference schedule because they are THAT good. The Catamounts will be playing close to home in Buffalo, and now the world will know how good they are. They win outright.

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as a 6.5-point favorite against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points.

Vermont boasts elite scorers in Ryan Davis (17.2 ppg) and Ben Shungu (16.2). As a team, the Catamounts shoot 49.4 percent, which ranks sixth nationally. They ran away with the America East championship game, 82-43 over UMBC. But this is a major step up in class. Arkansas enters on a 15-3 tear. The Razorbacks had tired legs in their SEC Tournament semifinal loss to Texas A&M, but that won't be the case Thursday. Look for Arkansas (16th in defensive efficiency per KenPom) to disrupt the Vermont attack and cover.