UNCW doesn't rate as a high-tempo team on the season, but both scoring and pace have picked up notably when the Seahawks faced high-flying Charleston. Pat Kelsey's Cougars rank No. 2 nationally in adjusted tempo according to KenPom.com, and the both regular season meetings with UNCW have reached at least 74 possessions and 164 points. Instead of handicapping the winner as Charleston fights to avoid a third loss to UNCW this season, I like attacking the style of game I expect in a matchup that should see the Cougars dictate pace.

No. 6 seed Charleston just played its best game of the season. I don't think the Cougars can replicate that performance versus No. 2 UNC Wilmington in the CAA semifinals tonight. The Seahawks have been money as underdogs (11-1 ATS run), and they beat Charleston by six and eight points this season (covering by a combined 20 points). In fact, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The difference in Monday's matchup should again be UNC Wilmington's ball pressure, which forced an astounding 45 turnovers in the regular-season matchups. Grab the points.

UNC Wilmington has been one of the more inspiring stories of 2021-22 as it lost three starters through the portal before the season began. The squad is the little engine that could. The Seahawks have been underrated and underpriced all season, playing most of their games as underdogs but winning enough to be tied for the CAA lead at 15-3. They went 18-10 ATS, yet Charleston is a short favorite here. No respect. People say smoke and mirrors, I say two senior guards smartly running the show. UNC Wilmington has won and covered four straight against Charleston. Look for the Seahawks to keep rolling and cover.