Past Picks
RB Leipzig should outclass Werder Bremen in this game. They've picked up 10 wins, three draws, and zero defeats in their last 13 games against Werder. Leipzig beat Werder home and away last season too. They made a strong start to the new Bundesliga campaign, beating Gladbach 3-0, so the players should be full of confidence. Meanwhile, Werder Bremen lost 4-1 to Freiburg in their opener, which doesn't bode well for their chances of beating RB Leipzig.
Schalke makes its return to the Bundesliga at Augsburg, which became a completely different club last December when Manuel Baum took over as interim coach. Only four teams in the league entering the weekend had more points than Augsburg since then. That side is unbeaten in the past three in this series but they haven't played since 2022, the last time Schalke was in the top flight. Its team captain in Kenan Karaman is out injured.
Bayern Munich should have a psychological edge over Stuttgart after dominating Die Schwaben last season. The German champions beat Stuttgart 4-2 at home, 5-0 on the road, and 3-0 in the German cup. They've won their last six games against Stuttgart, and five of those wins came via a margin of at least two goals. Bayern should be fresher than their opponents, as they beat Dortmund 2-1 in the German Super Cup last weekend, whereas this is Stuttgart's first game of the season, so a comfortable home win looks likely.
I didn't know the rather unique Bundesliga relegation rules until my friend and long-time SL subscriber Ed explained it to me on our Discord. Long story short, St. Pauli has reason to care in the finale as it could climb as high as third-to-last (16th). The bottom two in the league are kicked. Third-to-last enters a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from Zeitgeist 2 or whatever the lower-tier league is called for the final spot in next season's Bundesliga. Wolfsburg is in the same position but has a fairly large list of guys out. A draw works just fine for me and might be enough for Wolfsburg to finish in 16th as it holds all tiebreakers currently. St. Pauli can't afford a draw.
Taking the over here. Last year on the final day, over 2.5 goals hit in 7 of the 9 matches, with the slate averaging 3.44 goals per match. The year before that, not a single match went under 2.5. This match has no real table implications, which only pushes me further toward goals. With nothing to protect, this feels like a match with a ton of goals.
Big number, yes, but two things: First, I give myself a pass on DNB bigger numbers because in my mind I'm getting two wagers in one in a way. (Again, it's why I miss NHL -1.) Second, I think it should be quite a bit higher. Heidenheim is the worst team in German soccer and will be relegated. So I suppose it can throw caution to the wind, but it's not like you can call flea-flickers and double-reverses (right?) in this type of football. FC Cologne is trying to avoid "abstieg" -- gosh I hope I can trust Google Translate and that's not a curse word or something. A win here probably does the trick. Two starting defenders on the visitors are in doubt.
Bayern Munich's players will be disappointed after they crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday. They held European Champions to a 1-1 draw, but they lost 6-5 on aggregate in the two-legged semifinal clash. The Bavarians could now take out their frustrations on Wolfsburg this weekend. They've already wrapped up the Bundesliga title, but their next big game isn't until May 23 (DFB-Pokal final), so there's no real need for manager Vincent Kompany to rest key players. Wolfsburg are 16th in the Bundesliga, and they've lost their last seven games against Bayern, including an 8-1 defeat in January.
Dang it! I had this at -160 DNB the other day but wanted to wait for lineups and now I obviously lost 30 cents. Do I sweat 30 cents? Not particularly, but not getting a number I thought would jump is irksome. Again, same sort of deal as my Friday Serie A play (win): Nothing really to play for, so why wouldn't we take the home team to at worst draw? Answer: We shall. Mönchengladbach, which sounds like a great beer and also the static the Poltergeist little girl heard on the TV, has some major player availability questions led by leading scorer Haris Tabakovic (12 goals domestically). Guessing his iffy status is why this has jumped, but I don't speak German.
Battle of the Burgs! Feel like I should have a Pittsburgh metaphor here, but it's escaping me at the moment. Would like a Primanti Bros. sandwich right now, though, that's for sure. I think this probably draws today but really cheap price so definitely worth the risk on DNB. Freiburg is 18 points better in the Bundesliga. The hosts have lost only twice in league play at home since August and one of those was to superpower Bayern Munich in a game the Breisgau Brazilians should have won. They won this reverse fixture, 4-3 on Dec. 20.
We're getting to that point in the season where some clubs are starting to show their fatigue more than others. Teams like Hoffenheim haven't really had to deal with extracurricular competitions, while Stuttgart is still in the Pokal Cup, and their players have looked exhausted in recent weeks. While Hoffenheim just beat Dortmund, Stuttgart looked slow and sloppy in their draw against Werder Bremen last matchday. While both teams are certainty capable of making this a tricky matchup, I'm backing the in form side at home.
I'm so so so SO excited for this matchup. The top four spots in Germany qualify for Champions League next season. Stuttgart is currently in 4th with 57 points. Hoffenheim is in fifth with 57 points as well, but down on goal differential. A win here is critical for both sides and Hoffenheim have been monsters at home. Not only though , does winning matter, but so does stacking goals for the goal differential. We have two of the best attacks in Germany clashing in a must win game. Let me sit back, pour my coffee, and enjoy betting the over.
Hoffenheim have done incredible this season, especially considering how poor they were last season. They finished the last year 15th on the table barely avoiding relegation. Now, they are fifth on the table, and are just two points behind Stuttgart and that all important fourth on the table position. Bundesliga's top four teams qualify automatically for UCL play next year, and Hoffenheim want to be there. They're taking on a beaten and bruised Hamburg side who has been a punching bag for the majority of the season. I don't only think Hoffenheim win this, but I think they win it by multiple goals.
St Pauli have struggled this season in more ways than once. Issues with injuries, inconsistent form, and struggles off the pitch have made this a tough season for the club, however, they're fighting to continue to play in the top flight in Germany. Heidenheim are almost surely going down sitting dead last on the table with only 19 points, and while they need the points, I just don't have confidence backing the worst defense in Germany. St Pauli aren't much better, but the fight they showed against Union Berlin and Koln has me giving them a slight edge.
Frankfurt this season have the second highest goals per average per match in the Bundesliga. The only team averaging more goals per match than them, is a Bayern Munich team who have 109 goals scored. Frankfurt's combination of lethal attack and swiss-cheese like defense has led to consistent exciting affairs. Their last four matches have all seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals score, as their defense has conceded eight over those four games. While Augsburg's defense is equally as bad, they know that pressing for goals is how you beat Frankfurt. I'm expected the over 3.5 goals to hit as well if you want plus odds.
I know that seeing an under in a Bayern Munich game is about the grossest thing imaginable in Bundesliga play, but hear me out. Bayern Munich have already won the league. The Bundesliga title is theirs. This game against Mainz doesn't matter, but what does matter is PSG. Bayern play PSG on Tuesday in Champions League. Expect Bayern to rest multiple big names to prep for that match that is infinitely more important, which could lead to a rare, boring match Mainz