Past Picks
You’d be a fool not to take the over in this match. Frankfurt matches are averaging 5.5 goals, while Koln matches are averaging four. Both teams to score has hit in 90% of Koln’s matches, while Frankfurt are conceding 2.4 goals per contest. Defending has been optional for both sides, and over 3.5 goals has cashed in 90% of Frankfurt’s matches. The beauty of this bet is that we don’t necessarily need Koln to score multiple goals. A 3-1 Frankfurt win gets us there, but given how poorly both teams have defended, a 2-2 draw is certainly in play. I expect an open, entertaining match with plenty of scoring opportunities.
I honestly try to avoid picking Freiburg games because for some reason then I get Tom Petty's "Free Fallin'" in my head and can't get it out for like days. Good song sure but not on a continuous mental loop. The hosts are only three points out of the Bundesliga lead, while Schalke 04 -- no song issues there -- is near bottom of table. Starting midfielder Dejan Ljubicic remains out. Think you know the drill: Likely only a draw gets us but DNB is just too pricy sadly.
Borussia Dortmund should take care of business at home, but I'm not expecting a goal fest. Dortmund's home matches have averaged just 2.5 total goals this season, and they've yet to concede at home. Their defensive numbers back that up, allowing just 0.95 expected goals per match. Werder Bremen's matches average 3.1 goals, but their 1.38 xG suggests that goals may be difficult to come by. Another factor worth considering is the international break. Teams can be sluggish coming out of the break, especially with players returning from international duty. I expect Dortmund to control possession, dictate the tempo, and grind out a comfortable victory.
RB Leipzig were dismantled midweek by Como in the Champions League, but I think this is a get-right spot for Martín Demichelis's men. RB Leipzig recorded a 3-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach on home soil on Aug. 29, recording 21 total shots, including 11 on target. Meanwhile, Hamburg has conceded seven goals and remains scoreless through the first two Bundesliga fixtures. RB Leipzig wins by 2+ goals.
Anytime I get a chance to pick an FC Cologne game and think of the Pierre Cardin/Drakkar smell-filled 80s, I'm going to. No fun if I say the actual name Koln, and I know it sounds nothing like Cologne; also have no idea what button on my keyboard does the umlaut. The visitors seem to have some player availability concerns. Werder Bremen did look excellent last time out in routing RB Leipzig but that was on home pitch. The River Islanders were blown to pieces in their last roadie, 4-1, and lost last season's visit to RheinEnergieStadion by two goals. So they run words together in Germany huh? OKthen. Model has a draw.
RB Leipzig should outclass Werder Bremen in this game. They've picked up 10 wins, three draws, and zero defeats in their last 13 games against Werder. Leipzig beat Werder home and away last season too. They made a strong start to the new Bundesliga campaign, beating Gladbach 3-0, so the players should be full of confidence. Meanwhile, Werder Bremen lost 4-1 to Freiburg in their opener, which doesn't bode well for their chances of beating RB Leipzig.
Schalke makes its return to the Bundesliga at Augsburg, which became a completely different club last December when Manuel Baum took over as interim coach. Only four teams in the league entering the weekend had more points than Augsburg since then. That side is unbeaten in the past three in this series but they haven't played since 2022, the last time Schalke was in the top flight. Its team captain in Kenan Karaman is out injured.
Bayern Munich should have a psychological edge over Stuttgart after dominating Die Schwaben last season. The German champions beat Stuttgart 4-2 at home, 5-0 on the road, and 3-0 in the German cup. They've won their last six games against Stuttgart, and five of those wins came via a margin of at least two goals. Bayern should be fresher than their opponents, as they beat Dortmund 2-1 in the German Super Cup last weekend, whereas this is Stuttgart's first game of the season, so a comfortable home win looks likely.
I didn't know the rather unique Bundesliga relegation rules until my friend and long-time SL subscriber Ed explained it to me on our Discord. Long story short, St. Pauli has reason to care in the finale as it could climb as high as third-to-last (16th). The bottom two in the league are kicked. Third-to-last enters a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from Zeitgeist 2 or whatever the lower-tier league is called for the final spot in next season's Bundesliga. Wolfsburg is in the same position but has a fairly large list of guys out. A draw works just fine for me and might be enough for Wolfsburg to finish in 16th as it holds all tiebreakers currently. St. Pauli can't afford a draw.
Taking the over here. Last year on the final day, over 2.5 goals hit in 7 of the 9 matches, with the slate averaging 3.44 goals per match. The year before that, not a single match went under 2.5. This match has no real table implications, which only pushes me further toward goals. With nothing to protect, this feels like a match with a ton of goals.
Big number, yes, but two things: First, I give myself a pass on DNB bigger numbers because in my mind I'm getting two wagers in one in a way. (Again, it's why I miss NHL -1.) Second, I think it should be quite a bit higher. Heidenheim is the worst team in German soccer and will be relegated. So I suppose it can throw caution to the wind, but it's not like you can call flea-flickers and double-reverses (right?) in this type of football. FC Cologne is trying to avoid "abstieg" -- gosh I hope I can trust Google Translate and that's not a curse word or something. A win here probably does the trick. Two starting defenders on the visitors are in doubt.
Bayern Munich's players will be disappointed after they crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday. They held European Champions to a 1-1 draw, but they lost 6-5 on aggregate in the two-legged semifinal clash. The Bavarians could now take out their frustrations on Wolfsburg this weekend. They've already wrapped up the Bundesliga title, but their next big game isn't until May 23 (DFB-Pokal final), so there's no real need for manager Vincent Kompany to rest key players. Wolfsburg are 16th in the Bundesliga, and they've lost their last seven games against Bayern, including an 8-1 defeat in January.
Dang it! I had this at -160 DNB the other day but wanted to wait for lineups and now I obviously lost 30 cents. Do I sweat 30 cents? Not particularly, but not getting a number I thought would jump is irksome. Again, same sort of deal as my Friday Serie A play (win): Nothing really to play for, so why wouldn't we take the home team to at worst draw? Answer: We shall. Mönchengladbach, which sounds like a great beer and also the static the Poltergeist little girl heard on the TV, has some major player availability questions led by leading scorer Haris Tabakovic (12 goals domestically). Guessing his iffy status is why this has jumped, but I don't speak German.
Battle of the Burgs! Feel like I should have a Pittsburgh metaphor here, but it's escaping me at the moment. Would like a Primanti Bros. sandwich right now, though, that's for sure. I think this probably draws today but really cheap price so definitely worth the risk on DNB. Freiburg is 18 points better in the Bundesliga. The hosts have lost only twice in league play at home since August and one of those was to superpower Bayern Munich in a game the Breisgau Brazilians should have won. They won this reverse fixture, 4-3 on Dec. 20.
We're getting to that point in the season where some clubs are starting to show their fatigue more than others. Teams like Hoffenheim haven't really had to deal with extracurricular competitions, while Stuttgart is still in the Pokal Cup, and their players have looked exhausted in recent weeks. While Hoffenheim just beat Dortmund, Stuttgart looked slow and sloppy in their draw against Werder Bremen last matchday. While both teams are certainty capable of making this a tricky matchup, I'm backing the in form side at home.