We’re at that stage of the season where the top clubs are chasing Champions League spots and the rest are fighting to stay up. Hamburger fall into that second group, but they’ve given themselves a cushion, sitting six points clear of the drop with six matches left. Not safe yet, but in a solid spot. Stuttgart are pushing for Europe and can’t afford to slip. The underlying numbers tell the story. Hamburger have struggled to create chances and average just 0.85 goals per away match while conceding close to two. They’ve covered the +1.5 in six straight, but this is a tougher test. If Stuttgart play to their level, this could get away from Hamburger. A 2-0 or 3-1 result feels likely.
I always hate saying that "a team doesn't care about a match", but that's the truth here. Bayern Munich are nine points clear at the top of the table. This match against a relegation struggling St. Pauli side is sandwiched between two UCL matches against Real Madrid for the Bavarians. Vincent Kompany will have his squad rotate heavily for this match, prioritizing their UCL tie over this match. I expect St Pauli to play defense, be scrappy, and try to sneak a a point in a low scoring fixture.
I cannot overstate the importance of finishing in the top four in the Bundesliga. The top four teams at the end of the season are guaranteed a spot in next season's Champions League. With that not only comes the chance to win the biggest European title, but also comes with a great deal of extra finances for the clubs. Leipzig are currently sitting third on the table, but are even on points with Stuttgart who is in fourth, and only three points ahead of Leverkusen. Leipzig cannot slow down, and have been finding some good form as of late. I expect them not only to win at home, but win by 2+ goals.
Wolfsburg are drowning at the moment. The team is sitting 17th on the table, in the relegation zone, four points behind St. Pauli. The team has been struggling on both ends of the pitch, and currently have the most goals conceded in the entire league with 63 goals allowed. This team can't string together a pass from the back to save their lives. Frankfurt might not be in the best form, but this DNB line is a blessing, and I think Frankfurt win outright against their floundering opponents.
Hoffenheim and Augsburg have been experiencing a bit of poor form as of late. Hoffenheim have now gone their last three matches without a win, losing to Mainz and Leipzig while drawing Wolfsburg. Augsburg have been in even worse form with no wins in their last four. Both teams desperately need to end their winless streak, but I believe that Hoffenheim are the side with the quality to make that happen. Sitting fifth on the table and fighting for a Champions League spot, expect the visitors to finally turn things around.
I know that Frankfurt hasn't had their usual devastating offense on full display this season, but this is still a really solid team fighting for European contention. They've put up 50 goals this season, and more importantly for this over, they've conceded 51 goals this season. This team is leaking goals and has found themselves time and time again getting in slug fests against their opponents. Koln isn't the best team by any means, but are motivated by fear of relegation and will press for goals against a leaky Frankfurt side.
We saw these two take the pitch against each other in Dortmund back in November. The Black and Yellow put up a fantastic performance picking up three goals from Can, Beier and Adeyemi, but only managed a draw as Deniz Undav secured a hattrick for Stuttgart. These are some of the best offenses that Germany has to offer, and two teams that have been in tremendous afform in the final third of the pitch. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we saw a similar final score as the last time they clashed.
It’s been a poor run of form for Wolfsburg. They are winless in their last 10 matches, with seven of those ending in defeat. While they haven’t lost by two or more goals since a 4–0 thrashing against Stuttgart, the underlying performances haven’t been much better, especially in the xG department. Injuries have piled up, and they’ll also be without a key presence in the middle with defender Moritz Jenz sidelined. Leverkusen haven’t been in top form themselves, but with no European commitments, they can fully focus on climbing the table. The goal spread offers solid value, especially with a 3–1 result well within the realm of possibility.
Always a fan of outlier 3.5 totals when all the other books have 2.5 as is the case for this Bundesliga matchup on Saturday. Both are top half of the table in teams of fewest goals allowed. If Hoffenheim is held to just two then I think golden. The sides drew 1-1 in November, with one an own goal and the other in the 88th minute. Four straight and six of Mainz's past seven in all competitions has landed Under 3.5. Hoffenheim starting midfielder Leon Avdullahu is out and the side has stayed Under 3.5 in three straight matches at home. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
There is only a single club in the top flight of German footy how has conceded more than 60 goals this season. Welcome to dead last on the table Heidenheim! They are sitting with only 15 points over 27games, and as the season starts to wind down the desperation has become palpable. While we aren't seeing them win, we are seeing them score some dang goals. They went lights out against Leverkusen last matchday and found a 3-3 draw. This team can't afford to sit back, and have to press to try to get points. I expect not only 2.5 to clear, but 3.5 as well.
Bayern are the best team in Germany and possibly the best team in Europe right now. If Bayern played their best starting XI for 90 minutes they'd win this game by 3+ goals. However, this is known as a look ahead game for Bayern. Bayern don't need to win, and just three days after this match, they play in Madrid for a UCL match. I expect Bayern Munich to heavily rotate their lineup to make sure they don't pick up any unnecessary injuries, and play this one much slower than we are used to.
Leipzig are in a heated race to finish top four of the Bundesliga to make sure they can grab a Champions League spot next season. They are currently fourth, but are even on points with Hoffenheim which means they really can't afford to slow down. They've been blowing hot or cold this season, but last week they ripped Hoffenheim to pieces 5-0, and showed how good they c an be on their day. Werder isn't good enough to stop Leipzig from scoring, and I expect a big three points here.
Mainz bounceback this season has been one of historical success. This team that was in the relegation conversation, underwent new management, and became a different squad entirely. They are now 12th on the table, unbeaten in their last seven, and have taken points off Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and Leverkusen in the last month. I know that Hoffenheim at home is usually an auto-bet, but the last thing I want to do right now is bet against a rampaging Mainz side who has been killer on the road.
I know that -188 is some serious juice, but if you don't like this, take the over 3.5 for plus money instead! While the Bundesliga title race is mostly over already with Bayern Munich pulling further and further ahead, that doesn't mean Dortmund can take their foots off the gas yet needing to secure another UCL spot on the table. They continue to dominate at home and their recent games have let the goals flow. Hamburg are safely in the middle of the table, but their defense will struggle against a Dortmund team that might cover the over by themselves.
This should be an entertaining game between two teams that are fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table. The specter of relegation hangs over Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen, as they both have dreadful defensive records. Wolfsburg have only kept one clean sheet in 26 matches this season, and Werder Bremen have just five clean sheets. Both teams are decent in attack, so we should see goals in this game. Wolfsburg’s matches have averaged 3.50 goals this season, and Werder Bremen’s have averaged 2.92 goals, so over 2.5 goals looks appealing.