The Broncos are just 1-4 ATS this year as a favorite, with their clunky but sometimes effective brand of football rarely lending itself to separation form an opponent. The Patriots have shown a little more offensive life with Bailey Zappe at QB and their run game can ding the Denver defense. Look for a one-score game.

Bill Belichick will run the ball like hell and keep the clock moving and get one game closer to his exodus from New England. Broncos run D is last in the NFL with a thud, Stevenson is still out, so Elliott is the bell cow, and unlike last week, this is not an opponent who can score quickly and rack up points to eliminate volume in Pats run game. Elliott is over this in two of the last three games and this feels a lot like those match-ups with the Chargers and Patriots

This line has shot up with the market expecting a Broncos blowout, and even if that happens the Patriots could just lean on the running game with nothing left to play for this season. The matchup sure dictates the Patriots run early and often, with the Broncos giving up more rushing yards to RBs than any team in the league. That's why this prop is already elevated with Zeke topping this number just twice this season. I expect he'll get the opportunity to get over again here, as I buy more into the low total for this game than I do the increasing spread.

Wilson's been over this in each of his past two games as a byproduct of the Broncos needing to throw. I think that will continue. Five of the past eight QBs against the Pats have thrown for over 210 yards while the three that didn't were close. Wilson has hit on a bunch of deep passes against Belichick's defenses previously, and I can't help but think he'll fire deep against the Patriots, just as he has this season as the QB with the seventh-most pass attempts of 20-plus Air Yards. Additionally, New England has allowed an 84.5% catch rate to running backs with 7.4 yards per catch, so they're susceptible to giving up numbers to RBs, which Wilson tends to attack each week.

Denver is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Lions, and needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Broncos have been exposed defensively when facing opponents with speed and explosiveness at multiple positions (Miami and Detroit), but they have played extremely well otherwise. I expect the Broncos to have some offensive issues against New England's defense, but the Patriots have injury concerns along their offensive line, and I have a hard time seeing them score more than 14-17 points here. I feel like this spread should be closer to 9.5 or 10. I'm laying the points here and expect Denver to win by 10.

This is a big number to lay with a limited offensive team like Denver, which plays very conservatively and likely will struggle to run versus New England's stout rush defense. But the Broncos' defense should be the difference here, especially with New England decimated on the offensive line. Bailey Zappe lost two starting offensive linemen last week and his play deteriorated quickly. He was intercepted and he fumbled (though NE recovered). With the Broncos on extra rest and needing a win for their playoff hopes, I bet the home team.

The Broncos finally head home after three straight road games, and their defense gets one of the easier matchups in the league with the Patriots coming to town. But that Denver defense struggles against the run, and that lines up with what the Patriots want to do offensively. If the Pats can get to 10 points against this mediocre defense they might cover this big number, as the Broncos offense is middle-of-the-road and facing a top-five defense in yards per play. The total, which has dropped throughout the week, tells you this will be a low-scoring game, and 6.5 points are so valuable in that type of matchup that I'll go against my power ratings and back the Patriots.