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Sun, Sep 245:00 pm UTCMetLife Stadium
62 F
Track OnCBS Sports
New England
Patriots
NE
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-13
ATS5-11
O/U7-10-0
FINAL SCORE
15
-
10
New York
Jets
NYJ
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-10
ATS6-10
O/U7-10-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
4-13
Win /Loss
7-10
5-11
Spread
6-10
7-10-0
Over / Under
7-10-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
NE @ NYJ
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MONEYLINE
NE @ NYJ
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OVER / UNDER
NE @ NYJ
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72%
PUBLIC
28%
MONEY
77%
PUBLIC
23%
MONEY
Over29%
PUBLIC
Under71%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadN.Y. Jets +3 -118
LOSS
Unit0.5
+742.5
54-31-2 in Last 87 NFL Sides Picks
+290
4-1 in Last 5 NFL ATS Picks
+42.5
2-1 in Last 3 NE ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Waited as long as I could to see if DraftKings would get to 3.5. Guess not. This likely will be such an ugly slog that it's decided by a field goal. True, the Jets have Zach Wilson but they also have the better roster overall and are home.

Pick Made: Sep 24, 4:38 pm UTC on DraftKings
Money LineNew England -140
WIN
Unit1.0
+1249.5
64-48-5 in Last 117 NFL Sides Picks
+872
14-5 in Last 19 NFL ML Picks
+47
4-3 in Last 7 NYJ ML Picks
Josh's Analysis:

This game will probably be just as ugly as its meager total suggests. But considering New England's dominance of this rivalry, with 14 consecutive victories, and Zach Wilson under center for the Jets, look for the Patriots to find a way to make it 15 straight.

Pick Made: Sep 24, 3:05 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadNew England -2.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+739
47-36-4 in Last 87 NFL ATS Picks
+98
2-1 in Last 3 NYJ ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Inevitable, almost, for Bill Belichick to beat the Jets, which he has now done 14 times in a row. Not worrying about Aaron Rodgers this week, Belichick now faces an offense that he has schemed into oblivion in recent years, with the last six of those 14 straight series win after Tom Brady left town. Mac Jones continues to seek some traction, but against this foe, simply having Belichick around means the Patriots don’t have to do much damage to come out ahead (last November it was a last-second punt return TD that proved the difference in a 10-3 win).

Pick Made: Sep 23, 7:37 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing YardsZach Wilson Under 180.5 Total Passing Yards -123
WIN
Unit0.5
Matt's Analysis:

Having a nice little NFL run thanks in part to Wilson actually throwing a TD pass in the blowout loss to Dallas. I already played Under this game total Sunday because, well, Wilson but also because the weather looks frightful -- and, yes, I heard my first Christmas song this week; sigh -- due to that tropical system. Wilson hasn't even topped 80 passing yards in two of four career starts vs. the Pats. Half unit.

Pick Made: Sep 22, 1:00 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Over / UnderUnder 37 -110
WIN
Unit0.5
+416.5
19-12 in Last 31 NFL O/U Picks
+250
3-0 in Last 3 NYJ O/U Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Can't believe I'm leaning Under a total of 37, but two other SL experts already did and they didn't mention the weather, which looks to be potentially ugly with that tropical system as of now scheduled to hit the Northeast on Sunday. It's not a hurricane but it may rain a lot. So let's throw a half unit down. Can't justify more at such a low number (down to 36.5 at some books already).

Pick Made: Sep 21, 8:59 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Point SpreadNew England -2.5 -112
WIN
Unit1.0
+917
83-66-3 in Last 152 NFL Picks
+362
26-20 in Last 46 NFL ATS Picks
+547
11-5 in Last 16 NYJ ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Love giving 2.5 points, especially with history on your side. Bill Belichick and New England last lost to the Jets straight-up 15 games ago. Four games involved New York QB Zach Wilson. His numbers are horrific, notably a completion rate of barely above 50 percent. Coach Hoodie might be slipping but should be able to dip into his vast store of defensive knowledge to limit the Jets to 14 points. The Patriots' two defeats came by one score against Super Bowl contenders. Besides, it's almost unfathomable to imagine the Pats at -3.

Pick Made: Sep 21, 8:53 pm UTC on FanDuel
Over / UnderUnder 37 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
Will's Analysis:

Neither the Patriots nor the Jets is a high-scoring offense, which is quite clearly reflected by this game's minuscule total. But I think both offenses will be even more conservative than usual in this game because of how good the teams' respective defenses are. A defensive score could easily decide this game and no one is going to want to take chances. I think we'll need multiple defensive scores or random jailbreaks for this game to go over 28 points honestly.

Pick Made: Sep 20, 7:16 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Over / UnderUnder 37 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+642
21-14 in Last 35 NFL O/U Picks
+372
6-2 in Last 8 NE O/U Picks
Kenny's Analysis:

The total is very low for a great reason. Two below average NFL quarterbacks, one top five defense (NY Jets) and one coach (Belichick) that always has a solid defensive game plan. My model has this total at 32.5.

Pick Made: Sep 20, 3:37 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadN.Y. Jets +2.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+285.5
28-22 in Last 50 NFL Picks
Kenny's Analysis:

New England is 25-28 SU the past 3+ years without Tom Brady. Even without Aaron Rodgers I think the Jets have the better roster. The QB comparison is dead even but the rest of the units I have the Jets with a slight advantage. Jets defense is the biggest advantage in the game. I'll take the home dog with the better defense. Jets+2.5

Pick Made: Sep 20, 3:35 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Point SpreadN.Y. Jets +3 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2053
98-78-4 in Last 180 NFL Sides Picks
+1733
78-61-3 in Last 142 NFL ATS Picks
+353
18-12-1 in Last 31 NE ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Jets offense looked unimpressive for a second straight week, but you can blame the opponent for that. With the Cowboys completely shutting down the run game, Zach Wilson had no chance for success. But the Pats just surrendered 6.7 yards per rush to Raheem Mostert, so I believe the Jets offense is capable of having a solid day. I wouldn't say the same for the Pats offense, with Mac Jones taking a step back after a solid showing against the Eagles and now facing a dangerous Jets defense. With title hopes expunged, ending the Patriots' win streak against them is the Jets' Super Bowl, and they'll show up for this spot.

Pick Made: Sep 19, 2:18 pm UTC on DraftKings

Team Injuries

New England Patriots
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
TE
Hunter Henry
FootQuestionable
Avatar
FS
Jabrill Peppers
HamstringQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Marte Mapu
NeckQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Marcus Jones
HipQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Kyle Dugger
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Ja'Lynn Polk
ShoulderQuestionable
Avatar
DT
Jaquelin Roy
FootQuestionable
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025
Avatar
SAF
Marcus Epps
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
WR
Stefon Diggs
Knee - ACLQuestionable
New York Jets
Thursday, May 08, 2025
Avatar
LB
Zaire Barnes
AnkleQuestionable
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
DT
Quinnen Williams
HamstringQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
FootQuestionable
Tuesday, Apr 15, 2025
Avatar
WR
Irvin Charles
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
LB
Jermaine Johnson II
AchillesQuestionable

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
0%
0-2
1-1
50%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
0%
0-0
1-0
100%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
0%
0-0
1-1
50%
When Spread was -4 to -1
SPREAD
When Spread was +1 to +4
0%
0-0
1-0
100%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
0%
0-0
1-0
100%
vs Teams That Win 40-55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 40-55% of Games
0%
0-1
0-0
0%
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
0%
0-1
1-1
50%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
0%
0-1
0-1
0%
vs NYJ
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NE
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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