Ezekiel Elliott ran roughshod over the Packers in the regular-season meeting, and he'll have another big day Sunday in the divisional playoffs. The rookie is fresh and recharged, and his O-line is incomparable. Aaron Rodgers will be doing a lot of watching from the sidelines. Back Dallas.

There’s little doubt the Packers will be the popular public side Sunday against the Cowboys. The default stance will be some variation of supporting the team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback ahead of the one led by a rookie. But I think the bigger-picture angle is the current form of the Packers, whose defense allowed just 13 points and made several key stops last week in beating the Giants. I expect Dallas to play well, but there are too many key numbers in the underdog’s favor to pass up.

The Cowboys have had a great season thanks to their two rookies, and their defense was able to get healthy during the off week. However, they finished the season 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and it’s been several weeks since they’ve played a meaningful game. Will this young squad be able to turn it back on when it counts? I have my reservations. Aaron Rodgers has the Packers playing their best football, and Green Bay has plenty of playoff experience to lean back on. I’m expecting both NFC games to be close, and I’m taking the points with the experienced teams in each. A two-team dog teaser almost seems too easy.

I'm a big believer in momentum heading into the playoffs and right now Green Bay has it with seven straight wins (6-1 ATS) while scoring 30 points or more in the last five. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is in a groove and along the way the defense has played better. I don't have any doubt that the Cowboys will score points led by that monster offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott, but I think Green Bay simply outscores them. The off week for Dallas, along with a Week 17 lay-down at Philly, might be just enough to make Dallas flat enough against the energized Packers. Take the points.

It wasn’t long ago that 32 and 17 points were tallied in consecutive Cowboys games. Once in the past five outings, the output has topped 52.5. While recent Packers games have gone north of this figure, it appears as if their premier WR, Jordy Nelson (ribs), will be sidelined. I look for a conservative offensive game plan for Dallas rookie QB Dak Prescott, with time-consuming handoffs to RB Ezekiel Elliott.

In the second half of the season, the Packers have been on fire offensively. They exploded in the second half of their playoff win over the Giants. But defensively, there are still questions about Green Bay. Especially in how the Pack defends the run. Look for the well-rested Cowboys to benefit from that extra time and feast on the Packers' vulnerable front seven. Dallas wins and covers.

The Packers have won seven straight, and Aaron Rodgers has thrown 22 TDs against zero INTs in his last eight games. In my simulations, the Packers are beating Dallas outright 45 percent of the time, making Green Bay a strong money line play at +185.