This is a very low total, which is to be expected with two great defenses in this game. However, each team’s offense actually has reasons for optimism here. The Broncos’ receivers will get to match up with a banged-up group of Chiefs cornerbacks with Steve Nelson out and Marcus Peters ailing. And the Broncos’ elite secondary means less against an offense that leans on short passes and looks to the tight end. Denver has struggled against the run, giving up 1,237 rushing yards this year. That’s where the Chiefs figure to focus their efforts. These two offenses are capable of scoring consistently on Sunday despite the apparent tough matchups.

KC devotees are giddy with glee at getting more than a field goal in a series recently dominated by the Chiefs. They had won seven in a row outright until last season’s streak-snapper at Mile High Stadium. Be careful, Chieftains. The visitors are banged up. Three starters -- WR Jeremy Maclin, LB Dee Ford, DT Jaye Howard -- are out. The idled could include four more. In contrast, Denver is fiddle-fit coming out of a bye. A night-time setting in the cold tilts the scales further toward the Broncos.

Kansas City has stayed Under the total in eight of 10 games this season -- on a run of six straight -- and the Under has gone 7-2-2 in their last 11 meetings with Denver. This one figures to be another grind-out game, with Denver's defense playing well and its offense not producing anything special. Winds will be up to 15 mph for this one. My top play in this game is the Under.

Despite how bad the Chiefs have looked on offense lately, they offer tremendous value getting more than a field goal in what should be a low-scoring game. My projections have K.C. losing by one and covering 57 percent of the time.

Denver is coming off a bye, facing a division opponent, against a QB who doesn't threaten to push the ball vertically, against a team without a major threat in the backfield. See where I?m going here?

The Broncos haven't been this healthy since the season opened. Kansas City's elite corner, Marcus Peters, might try to play through his hip pointer but probably won't be his normal self. The Chiefs were able to win despite their offensive struggles until last week. In Denver, their problems in the red zone (31st at scoring TDs) and on third down will be exposed. This might close higher so grab it now.