The Sixers are without Joel Embiid for game one. Paul Reed has done a nice job taking over the starting role, averaging nine points and 11 rebounds in those recent three games. Philadelphia has the rest advantage and still an experienced team. The Sixers are 9-0 ATS on the road playing without Embiid.

Paul Reed has been very productive on a per minute basis any time that he's been called upon or made a spot start for Joel Embiid. I expect him to play upwards of 30-32 minutes tonight. Reed has logged 28+ minutes on five occasions (including the playoffs) this season and has eclipsed this line in all five appearances while recording a double double every time out as well. Speaking of which you can find his double double prop at +320 which is worth a sprinkle as well. Love this spot for the backup big man.

Reed had 10 points and 15 rebounds in Game 4 vs. Brooklyn when Joel Embiid was out and I think it's very possible he puts up similar numbers without Embiid tonight in Boston. The SL Model has him right at this number.

The 76ers have defended Jayson Tatum well throughout his career. Tatum has faced the 76ers 21x and is averaging only 19 PPG. He has failed to score 30 points in nine of their last ten head to head match ups. The 76ers also went out and signed PJ Tucker in the offseason and his primary task will be making life difficult for Tatum. If Tatum does go for 30+ it will likely require him shooting 25+ shots and with Boston possessing so many capable and efficient scorers, I think it is unlikely he will force up a lot of bad shots tonight. This game also has some sneaky blowout potential.

The Sixers need to find offense from other sources tonight given the questionable status of Joel Embiid. Tobias Harris has proven that he can step up without their MVP. Harris averages 20.6 points through his 76 games played without Embiid since 2019. He most recently put up 25 points in Game 4 without the center. For a player who doesn't always show consistency, Harris is having a solid postseason averaging 20.3 points. The Sixers play faster without Embiid which should allow role players like Harris to step up.

With Joel Embiid doubtful to play this game the Boston Celtics are going to be able to attack to the paint while the Philadelphia 76ers won’t. That means offensive rebound put-backs and long 3-ball rebounds; perfect for Jayson Tatum. Even when Embiid played in the four games against the Celtics this year Tatum averaged 9.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists and went over the current line 3/4 games. Hear the full breakdown on Early Edge in 5 at 4pm ET.

While Maxey's usage should rise tonight with Joel Embiid out, the fact of the matter is no team in the NBA has done a better job stymieing the dynamic guard in his short career. His offensive efficiency rating against Boston is far and away Maxey's lowest against any opponent, and in his career he's averaged 12.5 PAR per game against Boston. This season he's averaging 14.75. Even with increased usage, I don't see him going over this total.

Led by Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, the Celtics have been explosive in the 2nd quarter. They rank second in 2nd-quarter scoring (30.4) and are even better at home (31.1). In the playoffs they've turned it up a notch, averaging 35 versus Atlanta. Philly put up 37 vs. the Nets in its playoff opener. But over the next three games the 76ers averaged just 21 2nd-quarter points. If Joel Embiid (knee) doesn't play, Philly's depth takes a hit and that weakness should show up in the 2nd quarter.

As the regular season wore on, Derrick White took on a bigger role for the Celtics. In the series against the Hawks, he logged at least 30 minutes in all six games. That helped him score at least 18 points four times, including all three games that were played in Boston. He had plenty of success against the 76ers during the regular season, scoring at least 18 points in three of four games. I expect him to start off this series on a high note and hit the over on this prop.

The explosive Celtics are on a 4-0 Over run, and that should continue in Game 1 against the rested 76ers. It appears as if Joel Embiid (right knee) won't play Monday. That likely means a faster pace. I'm projecting 220 points, giving us a nice edge on the current total.