While Maryland will certainly present Michigan its toughest test at this still-early point in the season, there remains a significant talent differential between the programs. The Terrapins have raised their game significantly with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback, but most of their explosiveness has come against weaker competition. When Maryland does step up to top-level Big Ten competition, it generally is not pretty. J.J. McCarthy is going to spark Michigan's offense even more, and the defense will bottle up Tagovailoa enough for a three-touchdown win.

Since 2015 Michigan has dominated this series, winning by an average of 33 points. Taulia Tagovailoa has played well this season, but he has struggled against ranked teams. In five games against ranked teams last year, Maryland was outscored by 32.6 points a game, including a 59-18 loss to the Wolverines. Michigan has played one of the easiest schedules so far this season, but the offense seems to be explosive when QB J.J. McCarthy is in the game. My model has Michigan winning by 24.

The Wolverines have spent the first three weeks of the season merrily scraping the bottom of the FBS barrel, clobbering Colorado State, UConn and Hawaii by a combined score of 166-17. They face a step up in competition Saturday against Maryland and, though the outcome might not be quite as lopsided, it might get close. The Terrapins historically start hot and fade fast, and this matchup should ignite their downfall. Michigan has owned the last three matchups by an average of 31 points and the gap between the programs remains enormous.

Michigan has put up at least 51 points in all three of its games and even though the Wolverines played three of the worst-rated teams, they didn’t hold back. They played like a team that believes they are championship-caliber. They’ll get a good test from undefeated Maryland (3-0), but the Wolverines aren’t getting the type of popular team tax as the top teams in the nation. In fact, this spread looks like the game is at a neutral site. I bet this game because I think Michigan is cheap by five points. Michigan covers.