This series hasn't been as high scoring as we thought but expect that to start changing as the venue shifts to MSG. It took an overtime for Game 1 to chug past 212.5 but no such luck in Game 2 that fell well, well short in the Knicks' 91-90 win. Some staggering offensive inefficiency by the three-point happy Celtics, who have missed an astounding 75 triples across the first two games, have artificially held down the scorelines. Neither team has shot well from the floor (the Knicks are a tick under 43% FGs themselves thru the first two games) and suspect the scoreline is about to break loose in Game 3, and follow the recent NBA playoffs over pattern (20-8 run). Play Celtics-Knicks Over

Missing a staggering 75 triples across the first two games is a monument to wastefulness, but Boston can do a lot better, especially Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who combined have missed 58 shots across the pair of losses to the Knicks at TD Garden. A bit better efficiency by each and the Celtics lead this series 2-0 instead of trailing 2-0. As for the Knicks, they haven't exactly been burning the nets, either, a tick below 43% from the floor themselves, instead relying upon the numbing inaccuracy of the Celtics to fuel their comebacks. Lightning has already struck twice in this series; could it possibly do so a third time in a row? Play Celtics

Karl-Anthony Towns has not attempted two or more threes in his last three games, making this a valuable bet at nearly 2:1 odds. We love this much +$$$ on a line well under his projection of 1.8 and average of 1.9. The Knicks' "strategy" of coming back from 20-point down in the second-half is clearly not sustainable. Getting Towns to take six or more threes and make two or more is a sustainable strategy that will help the team start faster. He had a similar slow start from three-point range in the Detroit series but came out firing in Game 3. We're buying low on his 8-3 Under stretch since March 28th and are jumping on his 43-26, 62.3% over trend before March 28th.

"Live by the three, die by the three" is a well-known NBA phrase, and Boston's 25% three-point shooting in the first two games has been an example of dying by the three. High turnover rates and lack of production in the paint have compounded their struggles. We backed New York in Game 2 because Boston's three-point differential dropped significantly compared to last year's championship team, and Kristaps Porzingis isn't performing well. Boston's three-point differential this season was +2.1, down from +3.5 last season. If 1.4 percentage points doesn't sound like a lot, it is. It's the gap between being 8th in the league (a playoff t versus 17th (a lottery team). Porzingis is still recovering from a respiratory illness, playing limited minutes and contributing minimally.

This is about as low of a return as I will go, but desperation should bring out the best in the Celtics. I like the first half spread but given the way this series has treated me already, I am going more conservative here. In the 6 meetings between these teams this season (reg and playoffs), BOS has led at the half in 5 of them (all by at least 9 points). BOS was +5.5 in first half on road this season, 2nd in NBA, averaging 60 points/half (4th). They can build up big leads and take control of games early ... The question remains can they manage not to give it right back?