Past Picks
Couldn't believe when I read that Saturday would be the first-ever major tournament matchup between the powerhouses from France and Italy. Not that I'm some soccer historian expert or even Ted Lasso, but still surprising. I somewhat expect a draw and will hope for the win -- six straight UCL finals have featured two goals or fewer ... obviously lower-scoring matches are more likely to draw. Inter's likely starting XI has an average age of 30 years and 4 months; Paris Saint-Germain's is 24 and 7 months. Inter has eight players who featured the last time it was in the UCL final two years ago; PSG has one starter who has played in a Champions League final at any time in his career.
Tactical challenges are nothing new for Inter and Simone Inzaghi, who not only outmaneuvered favored Bayern Munich and Barcelona in previous rounds, but almost completely nullified a heavily-favored Man City and Erling Haaland in this finale at Istanbul two years ago, desperately unlucky not to force extra time or win outright in 90 minutes. Inter's crafty collection of vets has proven adaptable to several styles, including Barca's go-go approach which Inzaghi capitalizing upon with Denzel Dumfries and others, and Inter presents further problems with dual strikers Marcus Thuram and Lautaro. Moreover, PSG's usual edge in goal with Gigi Donnarumma is also negligible here as Inter's vet Swiss keeper Yann Sommer continues his own highlight reel in this competition. Play Inter Milan on Money Line
Two teams trending in opposite directions square off when Barcelona host Inter Milan. Barcelona have lost just one of their last 28 matches across all competitions, while Inter Milan are winless in their past four fixtures, suffering three losses during that span. Barca have won five of their six Champions League home matches this season, all of those victories coming by at least two goals. Barcelona’s quest to win the quadruple is very much intact, and I expect the home side to get the job done on Wednesday.
PSG outclassed Aston Villa when the teams met in Paris last week. They will now take a 3-1 aggregate lead into the second leg of this quarterfinal clash. The Parisians can afford to draw this game, or lose by a single goal, and they will still advance to the next round. However, it’s dangerous to simply sit back and soak up pressure, so they should go out and try to beat Aston Villa once again. They look perfectly capable of doing so, as they are well rested and surging with momentum right now.
Under new manager Hansi Flick, Barcelona have become the best attacking side in all of Europe. Their starting XI are overflowing with world-class talent, and their synergy rivals that of some of the legendary Barcelona rosters. There are so many players scoring goals right now, including but not limited to Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres and Raphinha. Barcelona have scored 83 goals over their 30 league matches this season and decimated Benfica in the Round of 16. While I do believe Dortmund contribute to the score-sheet, Barcelona could cover this total by themselves if needed.
Arsenal will struggle to keep a clean sheet against Real Madrid after defensive lynchpin Gabriel Magalhães was ruled out with a hamstring injury. As such, the Gunners will need to take risks in a bid to outscore their opponents. They cannot afford to lose the first leg of Tuesday's Champions League quarterfinal clash, so they should play with a sense of urgency. Arsenal thumped PSV 9-3 in the last round, so they have enough firepower to cause problems for a Real Madrid team that has conceded in each of its last eight games.
Wish we had Draw No Bet option as I tend to believe that's the worst possible result today for Bayern Munich in the first leg at home of the quarterfinals. Both teams are pretty banged up, but the Bundesliga leaders are old hat in this round, reaching a sixth straight UCL quarterfinal. Bayern has won seven straight at home vs. Serie A sides and won 25 of its past 31 home Champions League games overall with five draws. Their home record this season is W5 D1.
Normally, betting on goals in a match featuring Arsenal would be questionable at best. The thing we need to focus on this match that will produce goals Is the lack of healthy and fit players, particularly on defense, for either side. Arsenal will be without the services of players such as Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel Magalhaes and Riccardo Calafiori, while Real Madrid are missing Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Dani Ceballos. A combination of injuries and poor form should create quite a bit of chaos at Emirates Stadium. I’m expecting both teams to come out swinging with full intention of leading after the first leg, with a plethora of goals along the way.
Clubs are tied 1-1 on aggregate entering today's second leg from France -- the only first-leg draw in the Round of 16. Lille has won 10 of its past 12 European matches at home with two draws, including a victory over reigning Champions League winner Real Madrid in October. Dortmund has only three wins in its last 11 trips to France and has lost six of its past 10 Bundesliga matches in a disappointing domestic season.
Watching the first leg, it was hard to believe Liverpool could win 1-0, considering how it was on its heels all night as PSG outshot the Reds by a 27-2 count. Though Arne Slot's men somehow grabbed all three points in Paris, recent form hasn't scintillated, including a labored 3-1 win over EPL bottom-feeder Southampton on the weekend, courtesy two dubious second-half penalties from the Saints that gifted a pair of goals to Mo Salah. If the second leg paces anything like the first a week ago, PSG remains very much in this one, especially if Ousmane Dembele (20 goals since New Year's!) continues to surface in Ballon d'Or conversations. Play PSG on ML
Barcelona have been spectacular in recent weeks, recording a clean sheet in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The home side has also been lethal in the attacking third, scoring eight goals in their last two home fixtures. I expect Barcelona to come out looking to extend their lead early in this match, which would lead to Benfica pressing and creating space behind their defenders for quality players like Robert Lewandowski and Raphina to exploit in the second half.
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last six games against Bayern Munich. The teams have already met twice this season. Leverkusen beat Bayern Munich 1-0 on the road in December, and they then held Vincent Kompany’s men to a 0-0 draw at BayArena on February 15. These Leverkusen players have a habit of thwarting Bayern Munich’s expensively assembled attack. They have conceded just one goal in their last four matches against Bayern, which bodes well for their chances of getting a result in Munich this week.
Bruno Lage raging at his Benfica team in the rain after blowing a 4-2 lead is a vision Barca's 5-4 win at Lisboa on January 21 is hard to dismiss. Here's a rematch but suspect Benfica, life-and-death with Monaco to reach this round, looks hard-pressed. Barca has been on fire, unbeaten since the calendar turned to 2025, and was never sharper than in the Sunday battering of Real Sociedad, which was already helpless before it got down to ten men as Hansi Flick's side fired 33 shots...to zero for La Real. Barcelona is scoring goals for fun lately (ten in the past three games in all competitions), with Robert Lewandowski scoring in five of his last six appearances. Play Barca on Money Line
Here's the next step for Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen, which has already proven it can win a Bundesliga and more than hold its own vs. Bayern Munich. Now, can Alonso get a result against Bayern in the Champions League? Nothing has separated these sides in a pair of draws this term, including a recent nil-nil at Bay Arena. Keep in mind Leverkusen has lost only four times in ALL competitions since last season, and will feel confident at this Allianz Arena leg with striker Patrik Schick heating up and scoring four goals across the last three matches in which he has started. Meanwhile, Vincent Kompany's Bayern needed a Alphonso Davies stoppage-time strike to escape Celtic in the last round. Play Bayer Leverkusen on Spread
Hang on for the ride as many in Europe are giving Luis Enrique's PSG a chance in this matchup. And why not; unbeaten in 20, winners in 18, and an aggregate 10-0 demolition of Ligue Un rival Brest in the last round to reach the final sixteen. And who needs Kylian Mbappe when Ousmane Dembele has been the hottest striker in Europe (though Mo Salah might argue) the past two-plus months, with 13 goals in his last eight outings? We would rather not pick a spot where Liverpool might lose, as excluding domestic cup competitions, however, and rather look over with the Reds now eleven straight matches scoring 2 or more goals, and Mo Salah himself on 29 in all competitions Play PSG-Liverpool Over