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UCL Logo

UEFA Champions League Expert Picks

Past Picks

Dec 11 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Barcelona
3
@ Borussia Dortmund
2
Point SpreadBorussia Dortmund +0.5 -135
LOSS
Unit1.0
+120
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ATS Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 BVB ATS Picks
Martin's Analysis:

Borussia Dortmund are currently fourth in the Champions League table, with four wins and one defeat in five games. They won both of their home games in convincing fashion, so they should be highly competitive when they host Barcelona. Barça are level on points with Dortmund, but their away record is not overly impressive: one win and one loss in two road trips so far. They have won just two of their last six games in all competitions, and they may view a draw as a good result in this game, so backing Dortmund +0.5 looks appealing.

Pick Made: Tue 4:41 am UTC on Caesars
Dec 11 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Barcelona
3
@ Borussia Dortmund
2
Over / UnderOver 3.5 +112
WIN
Unit1.0
+287
6-4 in Last 10 CHLG Picks
+315
3-0 in Last 3 BAR O/U Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

The winner puts itself in a great spot to get a first-round bye when the next phase of the Champions League unfolds in February. Dortmund's European form has been better than its Bundesliga form, where it currently sits sixth, as sixteen goals in five Champions League encounters suggests; watch young English striker Jamie Gittens, with goals in each of the last four Dortmund matches. Barca has been wobbling a bit lately, too, but has unquestioned firepower, and this could be a special night for star Robert Lewandowski, who spent four years at Dortmund earlier in his career. Barca has saved its best offense for the Champions League, it seems, scoring 17 times across the last four European outings. Play Borussia Dortmund-Barcelona Over

Pick Made: Wed 12:52 pm UTC on Sugar House
Dec 11 2024, 5:45 pm UTC
League
Slovan Bratislava
1
@ Atlético Madrid
3
Point SpreadAtletico Madrid -2.5 -145
LOSS
Unit1.0
+120
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ATS Picks
Martin's Analysis:

Slovan Bratislava look out of their depth in the Champions League. The Slovak champions have lost all five games so far, scoring just four goals and conceding 18. That leaves them with a -14 goal difference. They lost 5-1 to Celtic, 4-0 to Manchester City and 4-1 at home to Dinamo Zagreb, which does not augur well for their chances against a rampant Atlético Madrid team. Atlético have banged in 18 goals in their last four matches, including a 6-0 win against Sparta Prague in their last Champions League game, so they could run riot here.

Pick Made: Tue 4:39 am UTC on Caesars
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Aston Villa
3
@ RB Leipzig
2
Over / UnderOver 2.5 -143
WIN
Unit1.0
+300
3-0 in Last 3 CHLG O/U Picks
Martin's Analysis:

This has been a disastrous Champions League campaign for RB Leipzig, who have lost all five games so far. They have scored four goals and conceded 10, so their games have seen an average of 2.8 goals. However, over the past two weeks, Leipzig beat Eintracht Frankfurt (3-0) and Holstein Kiel (2-0). Aston Villa have been solid on defense so far, however, they have not kept a single clean sheet in seven away games in the Premier League this season. Over 2.5 goals looks appealing.

Pick Made: Tue 4:36 am UTC on Sugar House
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
PSG
3
@ Salzburg
0
Point SpreadRB Salzburg +2 -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+112.5
2-1 in Last 3 CHLG Picks
Matt's Analysis:

PSG is not what it was after losing Kylian Mbappe and sits only 25th in the current UCL table with four points and a minus-3 goal differential through five matches. RB Salzburg enters on a three-match unbeaten streak overall. It has just one UCL win but it was at home against a solid Feyenoord Rotterdam, so I think we are looking at worst at a push here. Our model has PSG by just .4 goals. It will be without Ousmane Dembele due to suspension. He has five Ligue 1 goals but hasn't scored in the UCL this season.

Pick Made: Tue 5:08 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Bayern Munich
5
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Point SpreadShakhtar Donetsk +2.5 -135
LOSS
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
Jon's Analysis:

I'm our resident Bundesliga supporter and literally have the Bayern Munich crest tattooed on my leg. With that being said, I do not feel confident in my squad right now. VIncent Kompany's team looked incredible… for about two months. They're consistently coming into matches as massive favorites and barely putting together sloppy and broken victories. The Bavarian giants will be looking for a big bounce-back victory, and as almost -700 favorites you would think that would happen. I just don’t trust them. Shakhtar are tough at home and I believe they'll find the scoresheet. While I do think Bayern Munich will win, a 2.5-goal spread is brutal for a team that will be missing its best scorer, Harry Kane.

Pick Made: Tue 2:56 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
PSV
0
@ Brest
1
Over / UnderOver 2.5 -154
LOSS
Unit1.0
+170
8-5 in Last 13 CHLG O/U Picks
Jon's Analysis:

I think this Over could be covered by PSV by themselves. Look to play things like PSV Over 1.5 TT as well, because I believe with all my heart that Stade Brest’s incredible start to the UCL is going to come to an abrupt halt. PSV have been on a rampage, both domestically and in their recent UCL fixtures. They beat Girona 4-0 and Shakhtar 3-2 in UCL, while beating Utrecht 5-2, Groningen 5-0, and Twente 6-1, all in their last five matches. This team doesn’t know how to slow down, and even if Stade Brest doesn’t contribute to the goal count, I like this Over just as much.

Pick Made: Tue 2:53 pm UTC on Sugar House
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
PSV
0
@ Brest
1
Money LinePSV -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
+100
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ML Picks
+115
2-1 in Last 3 PSV ML Picks
Jon's Analysis:

Stade Brest were a team that started off this competition in amazing form, but were exposed by Barcelona in the last matchday. Stade Brest is a team that historically struggles against Dutch sides, which will work perfectly for a PSV side that hasn’t lost against French sides in years. PSV has started off slow, but have way too much attack for a Brest side that prefers a more defensive approach. PSV, with American talent Ricardo Pepi, did well to pull a 1-1 draw against PSG (the best French side) already this season, and I’m expecting them to take all three points against Brest in France.

Pick Made: Tue 2:47 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Sporting CP
1
@ Club Brugge
2
Over / UnderOver 2.5 -130
WIN
Unit1.0
+170
8-5 in Last 13 CHLG O/U Picks
+79
2-1 in Last 3 CLU O/U Picks
Jon's Analysis:

Sporting are in crisis mode right now. Their manager took the call and moved to Manchester to coach the Red Devils, and since he left Sporting have lost three matches in a row. While the team still possess all the same talent that they dominated with, they’re just going through some growing pains, and a defensively weak Brugge side will be the perfect opponent for Viktor Gyokeres and Sporting to find their groove once again. These are two teams with tremendous goal-scoring talent, two teams that need three points, and two teams going for goals. I love Over 2.5 here and don’t hate Over 3.5 as well.

Pick Made: Tue 2:46 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Sporting CP
1
@ Club Brugge
2
Money LineSporting CP +160
LOSS
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
+100
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ML Picks
Jon's Analysis:

If the Over is too juicy for you, I’d consider taking the Sporting money line. This is a nice plus odds number for everyone who doesn’t mind a bit more risk. I’m aware that Sporting are in a rut right now since manager Ruben Amorim left to manage Manchester United, but this team just has so much talent. Most noticeably the striker and leader Viktor Gyokeres (ATGS +100), but also they have Francisco Trincao and Daniel Braganca to back him up. I’m expecting a bounce-back game here for the visitors.

Pick Made: Tue 2:49 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Real Madrid
3
@ Atalanta
2
Money LineAtalanta +160
LOSS
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
+100
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ML Picks
+145
2-1 in Last 3 RMA ML Picks
Jon's Analysis:

This is going to be a massively controversial play, but I’m sticking to my guns here! Atalanta should not be underdogs at home against anyone right now. Atalanta are currently top of the Serie A table, while also being one of the only three teams who are yet to lose a match in Champions League this season. They have Charles De Ketelaere, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui, and more. This is a team that is unstoppable, and even against the “Kings of Champions League,” Real Madrid, I expect the hosts to persevere and get all three points. Real Madrid are struggling massively right now, and while I think they’ll turn things around eventually, they'll need to wait another week to do that.

Pick Made: Tue 2:41 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Inter Milan
0
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1
Point SpreadInter +0.5 -141
LOSS
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
Jon's Analysis:

Frankly I think this match ends in a draw. Inter are one of the three clubs, along with Liverpool and Atalanta, who have not lost a match yet. They are also the only club that hasn’t conceded in UCL. That’s right, they've scored seven goals in their five matches and haven’t conceded a single time. While Leverkusen are a good side, especially when playing at home, this is one of those classic matchups where neither side would be upset walking away with a point. Both clubs are in the top eight and will do anything to prevent dropping points. Leverkusen have not lost in their last six matches across all competitions, while Inter haven’t lost in their last 13. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match.

Pick Made: Tue 2:52 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 10 2024, 5:45 pm UTC
League
Liverpool
1
@ Girona
0
Point SpreadLiverpool -1.5 +115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+120
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ATS Picks
Martin's Analysis:

Girona slipped down to ninth in La Liga after suffering a 3-0 home defeat to Real Madrid last weekend. They are winless in their last four games, which does not bode well for their chances of beating an in-form Liverpool team on Tuesday. Liverpool were due to face local rivals Everton last weekend, but the game was postponed due to a storm. That means the players will be fresh and raring to go by the time they arrive in Catalonia for this game, and they could overrun Girona.

Pick Made: Tue 4:43 am UTC on Caesars
Dec 10 2024, 5:45 pm UTC
League
Liverpool
1
@ Girona
0
Money LineLiverpool -225
WIN
Unit1.0
+135
7-5 in Last 12 CHLG Picks
+100
3-2 in Last 5 CHLG ML Picks
+100
2-1 in Last 3 GIR ML Picks
Jon's Analysis:

I know this is a juicy line and definitely is not for everyone, but I would consider using this as a parlay piece if you don’t want to take it as a straight bet. Liverpool ML, even at -225, is something I don’t mind playing considering how much of an absolute rampage Arne Slot and the Reds are on. This is the club that is not only atop the table in UCL play, but also is leading the English Premier League. They boast one of the best offenses, one of the best defenses, and are hands down the best road team in Europe right now. I expect Liverpool not only to win, but by multiple goals in this fixture.

Pick Made: Tue 2:42 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 10 2024, 5:45 pm UTC
League
Celtic
0
@ Dinamo Zagreb
0
Over / UnderOver 2.5 -130
LOSS
Unit1.0
+170
8-5 in Last 13 CHLG O/U Picks
Jon's Analysis:

Dinamo Zagreb and Celtic both find themselves in peculiar positions entering Matchday 6 of Champions League play. Both teams are currently in play-off positions, but are nowhere near safe enough to slow down if they want to remain there. Dimano having seven points and Celtic having eight means that I'm expecting the same thing we've seen from both sides all competition -- goals. Celtic matches are averaging four goals in UCL play, while Dinamo matches are averaging five. There's no reason to take anything other than the Over in this fixture!

Pick Made: Mon 4:43 pm UTC on Caesars
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