Past Picks
Dinamo Zagreb’s limitations were brutally exposed when they suffered a 9-2 defeat to Bayern Munich on Matchday 1. That left them rock bottom of the Champions League table, and they could be a little low on confidence when they host Monaco on Wednesday. Monaco began their campaign with an impressive 2-1 home win against Barcelona. They have picked up five wins and a draw from six Ligue 1 games this season, so they are in fine form right now.
Munich star Harry Kane will be available after tweaking an ankle last weekend. Kane had four goals in Munich's 9-2 rout of Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League opener. Vincent Kompany's side has outscored opponents 30-5 in all competitions this year. My only concern is a draw as Aston Villa hosts a Champions League match for the first time in 41 years.
We might slightly prefer the draw price id available, but the win price on Atleti has us intrigued as well...especially as we're in the Champions League, where Diego Simeone has made a mark in the past. A well-deserved 1-1 draw in El Derbi vs Real Madrid over the weekend has instilled more belief, with new EPL arrivals Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher already having a positive impact. Not much changes in the Portuguese Primera, where Benfica is as usual involved with Sporting Lisbon and Porto in a scrap for the top spot, but now must face Atleti keeper Jan Oblak, who has routinely stood on his head in this competition before. Play Atletico de Madrid on Money Line
This Bayern Munich side is firing on all cylinders with Vincent Kompany at the helm. Bayern are unbeaten across all competitions this season. They’re coming off their first draw of the campaign, a 1-1 stalemate against defending league champions Bayer Leverkusen, so they'll be eager to get back to winning ways. Kompany knows what it takes to win in England having captained Manchester City in his playing career, so I’m backing the German side to collect all three points on the road.
Dortmund made a flying start to their Champions League campaign when they beat Club Brugge 3-0 a couple of weeks ago. Der BVB should follow it up with another relatively comfortable victory when they host Celtic at Westfalenstadion on Matchday 2. They were the runners-up in last season’s Champions League, and they look superior to Celtic in every department. Celtic will be buoyed by their 5-1 win against Slovan Bratislava, but Dortmund represent a huge step up in quality, and the Hoops are likely to be outclassed in Germany.
This is essentially like betting the White Sox +2.5 at home vs. the Yankees. Which worked twice, I believe. Man City will dominate new Champions League team Slovan Bratislava but obviously City would have to score at least four times to cover on the road in what I imagine is a pretty big event in Slovakia. The Citizens haven't beaten a team by three goals yet this year in any competition and lost star Rodri recently to a season-ending injury. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne didn't making the trip to Bratislava, which is I believe where the events of the excellent movie "Hostel" took place.
Xabi Alonso has already tasted domestic defeat in the first month of Bundesliga action, something that didn't happen at all last season, as Bayer Leverkusen isn't sneaking up on anybody this time around. The fixture list into UCL today also troubles, as it's a short turnaround for Alonso's troops after the big Bundesliga battle with Bayern Munich that ended 1-1 on Saturday. They catch as ascendant Milan that has been in good form in recent weeks. Among recent efforts for Paolo Fonseca's troops are a 2-1 win in the Milan Derby vs. Inter and last Friday's 3-0 Serie A romp past Lecce. Goals in five straight by Christian Pulisic suggest the Rossoneri have a real target man in their midst. Play AC Milan on Spread
My two favorite teams to wager on goals domestically find themselves clashing at Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. This matchup is riddled with world class goal-scoring talent. Sporting boast one of the most clinical goal scorers on the planet in Viktor Gyokeres, while PSV have Luuk de Jong, Guus Til, Ricardo Pepi, Johan Bakayoko and more. This is a matchup in which there's too much talent and too poor defenses to bet on anything other than goals. Take both teams to score, and take Over 3.5 goals, especially at plus odds. I would have played this at -110.
This is going to be a hot take. I respect how this PSG side is playing since losing world-class striker Kylian Mbappe. New manager Luis Enrique is running this squad in incredible fashion, and young striker Bradley Barcola has done a tremendous job stepping up. Barcola has found six goals in his six starts already. While Arsenal are probably the better side on paper, this is still a squad riddled with injuries and one that is already feeling the strain of a congested schedule having to play in UCL, domestic play and multiple cups. With Arsenal's roster starting to run thin, I wouldn't' be shocked if the Gunners find themselves playing just how they did against Atalanta: for a low-scoring draw sharing the spoils.
RB Salzburg suffered a 3-0 defeat in the opener of this competition, but I expect the Austrian side to get back on track on Tuesday. RB Salzburg are unbeaten in their past three matches following the defeat against Sparta Praha, recording a clean sheet in all three fixtures. Brest, meanwhile, sit 13th in the Ligue 1 standings after conceding 13 goals in their first six league games. Look for RB Salzburg to control the pace of play and secure all three points in front of their home fans.
Arsenal delivered an impressive performance in their 1-0 win against Tottenham in Sunday’s North London Derby. They will now welcome key midfielder Declan Rice back into the team after he served a suspension. He will be fresh for this game, and he could drive the Gunners to victory over Atalanta, who have conceded nine goals in their last three games. Captain Martin Odegaard is still out injured, but Arsenal have enough firepower to capitalize upon La Dea’s defensive frailties.
The Champions League has often been in the wheelhouse for Diego Simeone and his Atletico de Madrid, and Atleti thinks a couple of shrewd offseason adds (defender Robin le Normand, via Real Sociedad and fresh off of Euro 2024 success for La Roja, plus all-action midfielder Conor Gallagher from Chelsea) portend another deep UCL run. With two wins in a row in Liga, and four straight clean sheets posted by goalie Jan Oblak, Simeone's men have belief again and will pose quite a hurdle for Leipzig at the Metropolitano. Red Bull also wasn't sharp last weekend vs. Union Berlin, held to a nil-nil at Red Bull Arena despite bossing possession by 67%-33%. Play Atletico de Madrid on Money Line
This Barcelona side is fun to watch under manager Hansi Flick. Barcelona have opened La Liga play with five consecutive wins, scoring 17 goals in the process. Monaco are having a good start to their Ligue 1 season as well, but I expect Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal to prove too much for the French side on Thursday.
Borussia Dortmund reached the Champions League final last season. They finished ahead of PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle in their group before getting the better of PSV, Atlético Madrid and PSG in the knockout stage. That cemented their status as one of the best teams in Europe. They have made an impressive start to the new season, with two wins and a draw from three games and they should have too much quality for Club Brugge to handle.
Girona surprised everyone by finishing third in La Liga last season. However, they lost key players Savinho, Artem Dovbyk, Aleix García and Pau Víctor in the summer transfer window, and their replacements have not yet settled in. Girona have already lost 3-0 to Atlético Madrid and 4-1 to Barcelona this season, which does not augur well for their prospects in the Champions League. PSG have made a fine start to the season, winning all four games by a margin of at least two goals, and they should outgun Girona in Paris.