Past Picks
Bayern Munich have been an unstoppable force at home in UCL group stages for the better part of a decade. While I understand why they are favorites and I understand what makes them so good, we can't ignore the names that will be missing from the starting lineup. Michael Olise will be gone with a red-card dismissal. Joshua Kimmich will be gone on personal leave. Jamal Musiala is out with an injury and Manuel Neur is a game-time decision. As much as I would love Bayern to win this one, I feel like best case for the home team, they'll see a draw.
Real Betis was good to us in the last league phase match, a 3-2 win over Porto to improve to 2-0 in the UCL this season. Feyenoord has split its first two in the UCL and has a decently long list of players out. No stars but depth. As it is, Feyenoord had generated the lowest expected goals total in the Champions League this season (1.12) through two matches. Feyenoord has lost seven straight European away matches, tying the team record (2008–14). The only previous meeting between the sides came in last season’s Europa League, won 2-1 by Betis in the league phase.
Over 3.5 goals has paid off in Real Betis' last three matches. They thrashed Osasuna 5-2 and battled to a 3-2 win against Porto, before losing 5-2 to Barcelona at the weekend. Los Verdiblancos are dangerous in attack, but their defense is weak. Over 3.5 goals has also landed in nine of Feyenoord's last 10 games. They beat Como 3-2 in their last Champions League match, before battling to a 4-3 victory over Telstar at the weekend.
First ever meeting between the sides. Both have started the UCL league phase at 0-2, but Lille is unbeaten in four straight at home domestically. Including qualifiers, Lille is unbeaten in its past six against Turkish teams (two wins). Galatasaray has one win in its past 11 at French sides and that in September 2001. Galatasaray's Victor Osimhen scored 18 goals in 38 games for Lille back n 2019-20. The model has Lille by two goals. Not sure about that but would be lovely.
I’m fading Manchester United and backing Como on the moneyline. Take the crest off United’s jersey and Como would be closer to -140 in this spot. United’s start has been a disaster. They haven’t beaten anyone outside of Sabah and teams battling relegation. This was always a concern with Michael Carrick trying to balance Premier League and Champions League matches. The squad has enough depth, but Carrick hasn’t shown he knows how to manage it through a demanding schedule. Meanwhile, Cesc Fabregas has Como playing some of the best football in Italy. There’s a clear difference in form, confidence and coaching right now. Getting plus money on Como at home is a bet I’m not passing up.
I know that a lot of people see Bodo Glimt on the road and get a little scared backing this team, and I understand that. I know that Bodo is a fortress at home and can be a little lack-luster on the road, but that being said, Napoli is a team I will gladly fade. This Napoli team is playing similarly to how Man United is playing in EPL right now. They just don't have the passion right now. They've put on back-to-back brutal performances and they will have to play perfect to beat Bodo straight up. I love this spread at plus money for a strong Bodo side.
High number but obviously I'd prefer -0.5 to -1 or -1.5, which are our other options. Porto lost its UCL home opener Man City, and no shame in that, but has dropped only two of its past 18 home games in major European competition overall (12 wins) and not two in a row since 2022. Porto is unbeaten in the past eight at home vs. Dutch foes (seven wins). Eindhoven has a long list of players either out or in question led by Guus Til and Ruben Van Bommel and has just two wins overall in its past 12 in this competition. It has a single win in Portugal in eight tries overall. The model has Porto by about a half-goal.
This is something you don't see everyday: PSG at an underdog number on home pitch (believed to be first time since February 2023 vs. Bayern Munich). So I think that's a have-to play, then, for the marquee matchup of Tuesday's Champions League action. This might end up 4-4 -- which would be fine for these purposes; BTTS is priced a whopping -475. Barca hasn't lost anywhere yet this season, so the number makes sense. But it has dropped the past two in this epic series and has some defensive injuries. The model has PSG by a half-goal.
This feels like a major class difference. AEK Athens are a solid team domestically, but it’s hard to think they have success at the Etihad. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss to Shakhtar Donetsk in a match where they had more shots, more touches in the opposition box, and five big chances compared to Shakhtar’s two. Yet they still conceded three goals. Their weak back line is why I'm backing City. If AEK are struggling defensively against weaker opposition, how are they supposed to contain Erling Haaland and company? I fully expect City to score three or four goals here. Three gives us a great chance to cover, while four should put this bet comfortably out of reach.
I love the Asian total over 3 goals here. This feels like a game that starts at 2-1 either way, especially with how leaky both teams have been defensively. Porto have played in some high-scoring matches recently, including 3-2 against Betis, 3-1 against Benfica and 4-1 against Casa Pia. PSV haven't seen as many overs, but they've struggled defensively against teams capable of scoring, conceding three against Twente and four against Sparta Rotterdam. More importantly, anytime I get an opportunity to back goals in a Peter Bosz match, I'm interested. I prefer over 3 for the protection, but at +125, there's enough value on over 3.5 to justify taking the bigger number.
It’s hard to see why the sportsbooks make PSG the slight underdogs for this game. They’re the reigning European champions, and their team is stacked with world-class players like Vitinha, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Ousmane Dembélé. The Parisians have home advantage, and they’ll be much fresher than Barcelona for this game. Manager Luis Enrique benched nine of his 11 best players for their game against Strasbourg at the weekend, whereas Barça’s stars all played against Real Betis. Barça have made a superb start to the season in Spain, but they play a high defensive line, so PSG’s forwards could run riot.
Atlético Madrid have won their last six games, including away victories over Espanyol, Alavés, and Real Sociedad. They beat Man Utd 2-0 in their last Champions League match, so they should be full of confidence right now. Stuttgart are a decent team, but they could struggle to deal with Atlético's elite forwards in this game.
Aston Villa gave everyone a bit of a shock to start the season off. They didn't score in their first few matches and everyone wrote them off saying this team was going to be a terror all season long. Well now their last six matches have all seen BTTS and Over 2.5 goals hit. Five goals, three goals, four goals, five goals, four goals and four goals. This team fixed their offense but their defense somehow got worse? I'm not going to question it. I'm going to happily bet BTTS + Over 2.5 goals and watch Fenerbahce's more than competent attack give them a run for their money!
This is a weird match because I would wager the majority of bettors will be on the under for this one. It's very easy to look at Porto and go "WOW! They average only .5 goals conceded per game this season, they'll go under!" I get this logic and I understand Porto has a good defense. But a good defense when you're playing Academico de Viseu is different than playing Real Betis. Plus, Porto have conceded in their last four straight. Real Betis on the other hand is flying high and pressing everyone. I expect this game to be a cheeky over, and I would add BTTS to get it to plus odds too!
This is a really fun matchup because on paper, Dortmund is the better side. The thing is, both of these clubs are powerhouses specifically when they play at home. When Dortmund is playing in front of the Yellow Wall I always want to back them. I don't like backing them on the road, however. Bodo Glimt showed last year just how hard they are to beat at home, and they're playing a poor away team. I would have bet whichever team was at home, but frankly getting the spread playable is just wrong. This game could very well end in a draw, and I'm fine with that. Taking the Cinderella story once again.