5 Expert Picks
Liverpool trails 2-0 in aggregate. ...
Barcelona are terrifying when their backs are against the wall. ...
It's too little too late for Liverpool. ...
I expect fireworks at Allianz Arena. ...
I'm taking a sprinkle on something crazy. ...
PSG's players will be well-rested when they step onto the pitch to face Liverpool this week. The French authorities moved their Ligue 1 game against Toulouse forward by a day, giving them extra time to rest and prepare for this clash with Liverpool. PSG won that game 3-1 on Friday, extending their winning streak to four matches. Meanwhile, Liverpool lost 4-0 to Man City on Saturday. The players could be low on confidence, and they also look exhausted. They now have to travel to Paris for a daunting game against the European champions, and they could be outclassed.
Goals feel like the cleanest way to attack this match. Whether that be BTTS and over, or Barcelona to win and BTTS. One thing is certain. Atletico Madrid have been conceding goals in bunches away from home. They have conceded 15 goals in their last five away days. The advanced metrics back it up. They are conceding just 1.07 xGA at home, but allow 1.53 xGA away from home. Barcelona have too much creativity in the midfield not to create chances and likely score multiple times. Do they win? Probably. Do they win by two clear goals? Maybe. The -1 gives you push protection, which matters most. At home, Barcelona have been dominant. 15-0 in La Liga and 4-0-1 in the Champions League.
Life under Arne Slot hasn’t been great for Liverpool. After winning the Premier League, they now sit fifth, with 10 losses and 42 goals conceded. That’s a massive difference from a year ago, when they lost just four matches and allowed only 41 goals. Tactically, this sets up perfectly for PSG. Liverpool’s biggest defensive issue has been their vulnerability in transition and on set pieces. The high line continues to be exposed, while the midfield lacks control when possession is lost, leaving the backline isolated. Luis Enrique’s side is lethal on the counter, one of the best in Europe. Their pace can punish stretched defenses. PSG know how important the first leg is in the knockout stages; they get the job done in Paris.
Road teams fared great Tuesday to open the UCL quarters (dang it Real Madrid) but sure feels tricky seeing Liverpool win in Paris and am sure the Reds will be thrilled with a draw -- they did win their last season, 1-0 (first away win in the series by either), but that winning goalie Alisson Becker is currently out injured. Liverpool has not looked good in back-to-back domestic losses entering -- both those also away. PSG is unbeaten in its past seven (two draws) vs. English foes. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored in three straight UCL knockout phase matches for the hosts (four goals).
PSG are flying heading into Wednesday’s clash against Liverpool, winning four straight across all competitions. The Parisians recorded a 5-2 win over Premier League side Chelsea at home in the first leg of the Round of 16, and I expect PSG to have enough firepower to get past Liverpool on home soil. Liverpool have won just one of their past five matches across all competitions, and have lost two straight, including a 4-0 thrashing against Man City in the FA Cup quarterfinals.
I know that it can be scary when everyone is on the same side of a play. We are going to see that with PSG today. The Parisians have been flying high and possess some of the best attackers on the planet. This is the kind of match, at home, where they could very well end this tie in the first leg. Liverpool defense has been horrendous, and coming off a 4-0 loss to City, they'll be desperate to stop the bleeding, but they won't. I have PSG covering this by themselves.
I know I'm not the first expert on SportsLine to give out this bet, and I probably won't be the last! This line feels like a trap. I get that, I understand that, and I'll gladly fall for this "trap" every time with how red hot PSG and how poor Liverpool have been. This Liverpool side just hasn't lived up to their expectations. Mo Salah, Florian Wirtz, and Virgil Van Dyke have all struggled to find consistency this season, and the defensive struggles of Liverpool, on the road especially, should be obvious in this match. I have PSG not only winning this, but winning by multiple goals.
Arsenal should be too strong for Sporting Lisbon when the teams clash in the Portuguese capital this week. The Gunners finished top of the Champions League group, with a 100% winning record, before beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16. They've had a recent wobble, losing to Man City and Southampton in cup competitions, but they should return to winning ways on Tuesday. They thrashed Sporting 5-1 on the road last season, before signing Sporting's best player in the summer. Viktor Gyokeres will be keen to make an impact against his former club, and he could fire Arsenal to victory.
What a spectacular match Tuesday as the Champions League quarters kick off. I'm certainly no Wile E. Coyote, super genius, when it comes to soccer but Real Madrid when healthy as a home dog has to be quite rare. The Whites are unbeaten in their past nine vs. Bayern (W7 D2) and have seven home wins in their last eight in the series. Real Madrid has one loss in its past 23 overall against German clubs. Kylian Mbappé has averaged a goal every 56 minutes for Real Madrid in this year's UCL (13 goals in nine games) and of players to reach at least 10 goals in the event, only Erling Haaland in 2019-20 has done so while maintaining a better MPG ratio (55).
I'm betting on the UCL fixtures early because I think we're going to find some soft lines and solid CLV. This matchup is going to be the one everyone is looking at. We have arguably the best attack in the world right now under Vincent Kompany taking on a Real Madrid side that is finally expected to have Kylian Mbappe returning to the starting XI. The pitch is going to be littered with world-class talent, and two managers who are aggressively attack minded. I'm expected both legs to see BTTS cash, and over 3.5 as well.