Picking the lone early game of the four Champions League matches worked well Tuesday, so let's try again Wednesday in the same scenario on a home dog. Except this time we get +1.25 instead of +0.25. It's the first-ever UEFA competition meeting between these clubs and Newcastle's first against a team from Azerbaijan. It's also the first for either at this stage of the UCL. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski missed the team's last domestic match but is ready. The side has scored two or more goals in the last six UCL home matches. Newcastle has two wins in its 15 away UEFA matches. Win by a goal I could care less. The visitors also have a handful of guys out led by defender Emil Krafth.

I know that people see the name Newcastle and want to put money on them to absolutely dominate an Azerbaijani side and that makes sense! I don't blame people for thinking that! I will say though be careful, this is a two-legged competition. Newcastle know if they just keep this close they can bring the second leg back home and dominate. I expect Qarabag to do what they did against Copenhagen, Chelsea, and Frankfurt at home already, and cover this spread.

Qarabag are the first Azerbaijani side to ever make it to the knockout round of Champions League play. They consistently scored against some of the best teams in Europe, and have been the shock of the entire competition. While many people are expecting them to fall off now, I still believe they will fight, score, and contribute to this goal total. Newcastle are the better side, and will find goals here, but I'm taking this over banking on Qarabag to once again, score at home.