Cremonese are currently sitting 18th on the table and are in the relegation zone. They are, however, just one point behind passing Lecce and avoiding the drop. They got a bit lucky in their last win over Pisa when Pisa had two men sent off with reds, but Cremonese has shown some heart in the final stages of the season. There is a chance they avoid the drop and stay in the top flight, but only if they manage to take points off Udinese. Udinese are the better team and are in better form, but these last couple games for them are pointless. I expect Cremonese to pickup at least a draw in this matchup.
This may be the best situational spot to bet on Roma this season. Lazio just played the Coppa Italia final against Inter on Wednesday, and now they must turn around and play again in Rome on Sunday. They are ninth in the table and mathematically out of the race for Europe, so this feels like a great opportunity to rest some of their senior players. They are also facing the hottest team in Serie A. Roma have won four of their last five and are unbeaten during that stretch. This is also their final home match of the season, and they will want to win both remaining matches to give themselves the best chance at qualifying for the Champions League.
High number but our only -0.5 on the board -- the rest are all at -1. Napoli, sitting second in Serie A, has just two home losses in its past 25. It did lose at Bologna earlier this season but also beat the team, 2-0, in Saudi Arabia (???) near Christmas in the Italian Supercoppa. Bologna has a single win in its past six in all competitions and has not scored in the past four. Maybe U2.5 isn't a bad idea, either.
Both clubs enter matchday 36 with everything to play for, but for entirely different reasons. Como is currently sitting sixth on the table as they fight to maintain a European qualifying position, while Verona are mathematically relegated if they do not win this match. While Verona are most likely going down already, a win here does keep the flame alive. While Verona will want to find points here, I think this will be an ugly, one sided affair with Como putting in 3+ goals by themselves. A win here matters, but so does goal differential. Verona have been horrendous defensively all season long, nothing should change this match.
This could be a tense, low-scoring game between two teams that struggle to generate chances. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in 63% of Lecce's games this season. They've only managed to score 24 times in 35 matches, but they're pretty solid in defense. Under 2.5 goals has also landed in 60% of Juventus' games, and it has paid off in two-thirds of their away matches. The Bianconeri are strong at the back, but they don't score many goals either. These teams played out a 1-1 draw earlier this season, so under 2.5 goals looks appealing.
Without Draw No Bet? Pass. This is why I miss -1 in the NHL so much (and not really playing) but that's for another day. I'm just now realizing that pretty much every team name in Serie A ends in a vowel. Hey, I'm a grammar nerd what can I say? Also math nerd. Let's just assume nerd overall, Poindexter. (#lambda) Lot of player concerns for the visitors and at this point in the season, really nothing to play for on either side in terms of Europe or domestic. So we take the home team. Il Toro won the reverse fixture, 1-0, in December.
I’m taking a small stab on the spread for Napoli. Neither team has been all that sharp, but Como have had the worst of it, with just one win in their last four matches. It’s also hard to give them too much credit for a win over Genoa at this point. Defensively, Como have been poor as well, conceding eight goals across their last five home matches. On the other side, Napoli are finally getting healthy. Antonio Conte vs. Cesc Fabregas should be a tactical chess match, but I trust Conte to walk away with at least a point.
Como are fighting tooth and nail to finish in a top four Serie A position and qualify for Champions League this season. They are currently fifth on the table, three points behind Juventus. While they're faltering a bit towards the end of the season, they can still pull it off if they finish strong. They have a brutal match ahead of them in second on the table Napoli, but their attacking form should lead to goals. Look at their last matches. 4-3 to Inter, 2-1 to Sassuolo, 3-2 again to Inter, and they scored two against Genoa. This team does nothing but press, so I'm taking an over once again for Como.
Did not expect to be up at 5 a.m. ET on May 1 and be thinking of Udinese -- Beefaroni, maybe -- but here we are. Perhaps tired me is a footy genius. Doubt it, although doing pretty well of late. If I get a team higher in any table at a good DNB price, I'm taking it. And that's this one Saturday from Serie A. The Little Zebras have looked completely different for the most part since the start of March, including a rout of AC Milan. They won the reverse fixture, 2-1 on Jan. 7 and eye their first league double in the series since 2008.
This is a matchup between not only two of the worst offenses in Italy, but two of the worst offenses in any of the top flights of European football. Pisa has played 34 games this season, and have only scored 24 times. That's bad, however, somehow Lecce is worse with only 22 goals scored in their 34 games. Both teams lack creativity and aggression on the attack. Pisa is already relegated and Lecce will be too scared to make mistakes and drop important points. I think this ends 1-0 Lecce
Pisa are all but mathematically relegated after an extremely disappointing year back in Serie A. Pisa have played 34 matches and only picked up two wins over those 34 matches. They have the worst defense in the league and one of the worst offenses in all of Italy. Lecce is not a good side, but they can avoid relegation if they pick up some points here, and I expect them to go out knowing that Pisa is their best chance at a very important win, and a very important three points.
Como should return to winning ways when they take on Genoa this weekend. Cesc Fabregas' side have slipped down to fifth in the Serie A table after losing their last two games - 4-3 to Inter and 2-1 to Como. They then lost 3-2 to Inter in the Coppa Italia semifinals on Tuesday, so they need to put that heartbreak behind them. They've been playing well in recent weeks, without getting the results they deserve, but things should finally click into place on Sunday. Genoa have nothing left to play for this season, and they could struggle against a team that has a point to prove.
Como my beloved, we meet once again. Cesc Fabregas has worked absolute wonders with this club. Two years back into Serie A Como is currently fighting for a Champions League finishing position. They are currently 5th on the table just five points behind Juventus. While they are coming off a back of couple disappointing performances, this is still a club that has shown a tremendous amount of attacking power. Players like Nico Paz could and should be playing at a top club in Europe, but he's staying in Italy dominating with this club. I expect Como to cover the over without any help from Genoa in this match.
We are getting a soft line on this match and I believe it's due to Como's most recent couple weeks of play. Como have been fantastic all season long, but hit a little blip in the road coming off back to back losses to Inter and Sassuolo. While they did lose both matches, they looked very solid on attack still. They managed to score three times against Inter, and while they lost 2-1 to Sassuolo, they would have had 3+ goals on a more clinical day. Winning this game is critical to Como if they want to find a top four finish, and I don't expect Genoa to have enough to stop them.
This game is going to be an absolute chaotic nightmare of match. On one hand we have Verona, a club who is 10 points down into the relegation zone, with only three wins and 18 points over their 33 games. They have only 23 goals scored this season, while conceding 56. On the other hand, Lecce have 28 points, and three points here could be the difference between survival and relegation. They do however, have even less goals scored than Verona, with only 22. I expect both teams to sit back and try to just survive, and the lesser of two evils for goals, for me, is Lecce. Give me a 1-0 win for Lecce.