I think the Avs are the better team, they really just have the goalie disadvantage and the lack of experience. However, I think the Lightning see the finish line for them. They’ve been on an incredible run but to me it seemed like they knew they were outmatched last game and still couldn’t do anything about it. Last game in Colorado the Avs won 7-0. I don’t think they squander this chance to win on home ice and risk another Lightning comeback. Take the Avs.

The Avalanche are up 3-1 in the series, while out-shooting Tampa Bay 145-111. I think the Lightning are spent and will now play at high altitude. Colorado dished out 41 hits and TB blocked 35 shots in game four. That's quite the combo. One day of rest favors the home team in this spot!

This number likely only rises for Game 5. It's all over for the two-time champion Lightning following Wednesday's 3-2 OT home loss. The Avalanche are the first team to hold a 3-1 series advantage in the Stanley Cup Final against a defending champion since the 2000 Devils. It's the sixth instance all-time, and each of the previous five teams went on to win the series. When picking Game 4, I did not expect Nazem Kadri back from injury for the Avalanche, although being honest I most likely have taken Tampa Bay at home anyways -- at worst I would have pondered it a bit longer. We saw with the OT winner what a difference Kadri makes. The Lightning are completely battered through 21 playoff games (18 for the Avs) with Nikita Kucherov clearly not 100 percent and both Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak getting hurt in Game 4. Brayden Point has missed the past two and already has been ruled out for Game 5 (if I heard right on the telecast). Meanwhile, the Avalanche might get Andre Burakovsky back after missing the past two -- he was tremendous in the first two games of the series. What a great run for the Lightning, but the Avs hoist the Cup in Denver on Friday. If you wanted to be bold, you could take Colorado -1.5 at around +165 because the Bolts might pull their goalie with about three minutes left in an elimination game down a goal (Coach Jon Cooper has been aggressive that way in the past). The under finally hit in Game 4, but I'm sticking with the over in Game 5 ... knocking it down to 5.5 per usual to avoid a possible push. Hope you enjoyed and profited from the hockey picks this season!