Game 1 is all about feeling the other team out. There tend to be a lot of goals because you have no idea how the other team will play you or attack you. There also tend to be a lot of penalties because teams are trying to establish their physicality. We saw how much Andrei Vasilevsky and the Lightning struggled with the long pause in their Conference Finals series and I expect something similar today. Take the over.

For the first time since 2009, the two preseason favorites will square off in the Stanley Cup Finals. Would like to give you some hard-hitting analysis here but it's honestly just a home-ice advantage pick. Colorado did sweep the regular-season series. The Avalanche are also 5-0 in playoff openers over the past two years, outscoring opponents by 17 goals.

There have been at least six goals scored in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final in every season since 2017, except the quirky 2020 season (five goals). Also, the Over is 17-6 in all Colorado games when the total is exactly six, while the Over is 19-15 when TB plays with that same total. Finally, the Over is 12-6 combined when these two teams play with three or more days of rest. I like the Over in Game 1!