The 2023 NFL regular season went about as well as possible for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott as he had a career season, becoming the first-ever Dallas signal-caller to lead the league in touchdown passes. He led the team to the NFC East title and No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Reports are that Prescott could become the highest-paid quarterback in history this offseason. However, Prescott is 1-5 against the spread in his playoff career and could make some unwanted recent history Sunday in the Wild Card round against visiting Green Bay. Click here for expert picks.
Dallas had been -7.5 almost all week but is down to -7, although there are no injury reasons for that. Prescott is 0-3 ATS in his playoff career at home and with an ATS loss on Sunday would break a tie with former Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer for the most home ATS playoff losses without a win in the last 20 years.
The Cowboys carry a 16-game winning streak (12-4 ATS) at AT&T Stadium into Sunday, the longest active streak in the league. That's why it was so important to win the division title and get at least one home game there – and obviously a second in the Divisional Round with a victory. Dallas has six home wins this season by at least 20 points, the most such victories since the 1999 Rams. America's Team has made 12 straight playoff appearances without reaching a conference title game, the longest such drought in NFL history. That streak started in the 1996 season.
Another big storyline Sunday is Mike McCarthy coaching against his former Packers team. He did return to Green Bay in the 2022 regular season when the Packers beat the Cowboys 31-28. McCarthy will become the third person in league history to coach a playoff game against a team he previously won a championship with, joining Mike Holmgren as Seattle coach (twice) also against the Packers and Jets coach Weeb Ewbank against the Colts.
Dallas has lost two straight playoff games outright as at least a 7-point favorite (1998 vs. Arizona and 2007 vs. the NY Giants). No team has lost three in a row as at least a TD favorite since the 1970 merger. Dallas is 5-5 straight up as a playoff favorite since 1996.
Green Bay is 5-0 all-time at AT&T Stadium, which includes the Super Bowl XLV victory vs. Pittsburgh when McCarthy as the coach, which also remains Aaron Rodgers' lone title. However, No. 7 seeds are 0-6 SU in the Wild Card round since the playoffs expanded in 2020.
While there were major questions about whether Jordan Love was the Packers' QB of the future as recently as midseason, there are none now. He closed the year playing as well as anyone with the Packers winning their final three games to grab the final NFC playoff spot. Love finished second to Prescott in TD passes, so this marks the first Wild Card matchup ever between the top two outright passing TD leaders. Love has nine games with at least two TDs and zero picks this season, the most of any quarterback. He became only the sixth QB all-time with at least 18 passing TDs and no more than one pick in the final eight games of a season.
It's obviously Love's postseason debut, and QBs making their first career playoff starts are 21-38 ATS since 2003. If we go back to 2002, quarterbacks making their first playoff start vs. QBs who have playoff experience are just 17-35-1 ATS. That trend is also in play this weekend for Houston's C.J. Stroud (vs. Cleveland's Joe Flacco), Pittsburgh's Mason Rudolph (vs. Buffalo's Josh Allen) and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa (vs. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes).
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