NFL Week 5: Are Bucs getting too much respect from oddsmakers vs. Saints?

Top-flight NFL quarterbacks are known to be sometimes worth a touchdown or more to the point spread, but only a few belong in this elite company. Signal-callers such as Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees come to mind, while the second tier would see a significant drop-off.

Week 5 of the NFL season shows many spreads that are indicative of this dynamic. Many observers believe the Tampa Buccaneers are only three-point underdogs at the New Orleans Saints because they are getting more respect based on their upset of the Los Angeles Rams last week. This couldn't be further from truth -- the line is light because of the absence of the injured Brees and nothing else. 

If Brees were in the lineup, the spread would be -9.5 or -10, the same number the Bucs saw the last time they went to New Orleans in 2018, and a similar number to what they faced last week against a Rams club with a healthy, upper-echelon quarterback in Jared Goff. 

The same concept applies to the New England Patriots, who are 15.5-point road favorites against the struggling Washington Redskins. If Brady were ruled out with an injury, there's little doubt that number would drop to -7.5 or a flat -7 in a heartbeat. However, the Redskins have yet to name a starter as they deliberate between Case Keenum, Colt McCoy and Dwayne Haskins. But sportsbooks have neither adjusted the number nor refused action on the game because it's clear they believe none of those quarterback candidates make any difference to the spread.

There are some situations that lie between the two extremes. Take the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen, for example. He is in concussion protocol and listed as questionable for this week's game against the Tennessee Titans, who have held steady as three-point favorites. The second-year pro is seen as a raw and improving talent, but he had three interceptions last week before getting knocked out against the New England Patriots. Journeyman backup Matt Barkley played fairly well in his absence.

Allen practiced Friday, an indicator he will likely play and the spread will not move. However, if he were ruled out, a spread move to -3.5 or -4 would likely follow. Allen is no Brady, but he's good enough to impact the spread for a team with a limited offense like Buffalo. 

So which teams should you back in Week 5 of the NFL season? And what teams will deliver huge upsets this week? Join SportsLine here to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks!