The Bills are outstanding defensively and with Josh Allen cleared to play, Buffalo is a very live underdog. In this series, the underdog has covered four straight meetings.

Josh Allen cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play, which adds more value to backing a Bills team that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game this season. It's hard to envision Marcus Mariota, who threw for just 129 yards with a pick when these teams met last year, leading the Titans to a ton of points here. The concern is that the Bills will have a letdown after a close, emotional loss to the Patriots, but I don't think Sean McDermott will let that happen. Take the points.

Josh Allen was listed as questionable on the team's final injury report for the week, but it's great news that he was able to practice in full on Friday. If he plays, I love the Bills getting three points against a Tennessee team coming off a win, a situation where they're an NFL-worst 10-20-1 ATS since 2015, Marcus Mariota's first year. Tennessee is also 11-17-2 ATS as a favorite since 2015. The Bills defense is the best unit in this game -- it's not even close -- and you have to like their chances of shutting down the Titans offense like they did last year in a 13-12 loss. This year's Bills are better, and they get the win here.

Buffalo will play this game without starting QB Josh Allen, who was knocked out last week against the Patriots and is in the concussion protocol. That means Matt Barkley will be asked to go toe-to-toe with one of the tougher defenses in the AFC. He brings accuracy to the table, but he doesn't bring the same athleticism as Allen, and that could be a problem in this game.

Buffalo has enough trouble scoring with Josh Allen at QB. So how will the Bills reach paydirt with Matt Barkley at the helm, against an opponent that ranks first for points allowed? The visitors must count on forcing turnovers to challenge this spread. However, QB Marcus Mariota has yet to throw an interception, so scratch that idea. The Bills’ 3-0 record before a setback to New England deserves an asterisk, seeing as how they beat both New York teams plus Cincinnati.