There is arguably no bigger home-field playoff advantage in the NFL than a cold-weather outdoor team hosting a warm-weather club. That's the case in the first of four divisional round games this weekend when the Packers host the Rams on Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET. Temperatures in Green Bay could be freezing at kickoff, which would appear to hugely favor the Packers in terms of betting trends. Ravens vs. Bills kicks off Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET, and there could be snow in Buffalo, in which Baltimore star quarterback Lamar Jackson has never played -- the former Heisman winner does just fine in the cold, however.
Green Bay is a 6.5-point favorite on the NFL odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and Packers fans should hope it's freezing (32 degrees) at kickoff – it will be very close to that, although there's not much chance of snow.
In Coach Matt LaFleur's two seasons, the Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in outdoor games with a kickoff temperature at 32 degrees or lower. Four of those six wins were at Lambeau, with one in New Jersey (Giants) and one in Chicago. Aaron Rodgers is 29-7 SU and 26-9-1 ATS in his Hall of Fame career in all outdoor games with a kickoff temperature below freezing, including 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the playoffs. Rodgers has never hosted an NFC title game, which would change with a victory Saturday.
The Rams haven't announced their starting quarterback for Saturday yet, but all signs point to Jared Goff despite him being less than 100 percent off thumb surgery. He was pushed into relief action last week when John Wolford went down injured. Goff, a California native, has played just two NFL games in temperatures below freezing at kickoff. Both were in 2018, in Denver and Chicago. The Rams split those games but failed to cover the spread in either and Goff had a combined five interceptions with no TD passes.
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites over the Ravens, and the forecast in Buffalo on Saturday night calls for temperatures right at freezing with a 70 percent chance of snow and possible accumulation of 1-3 inches – that's all night, not just at kickoff.
Baltimore's Jackson claims he has never played in a snow game. He did grow up in the Miami area, so that makes sense for his high school career, but Jackson played collegiately at Louisville and it can snow there -- and there are two other winter-weather football cities in the ACC (Boston College and Pittsburgh; Syracuse, too, but the Orange play in a dome).
Last Sunday's wild-card game in Tennessee had a kickoff temperature of 33 degrees, which was the lowest in Jackson's NFL career as a starter. He was just OK as a passer in the 20-13 win, completing 17 of 24 for 179 yards and a pick, but Jackson wasn't asked to do much through the air as Baltimore dominated on the ground. He led the team with 136 yards rushing and a TD on 16 carries. In Jackson's pro career, he is now 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU in outdoor games with a kickoff temperature below 40 degrees.
Browns vs. Chiefs kicks off Sunday from Kansas City at 3:05 p.m. ET, and the forecast is for sunny skies and a temperature of 41 degrees. The weather really shouldn't be a factor, and both Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield and Chiefs counterpart Patrick Mahomes have plenty of cold-weather outdoor experience. It was under 30 degrees last Sunday night in Pittsburgh when Mayfield threw three TD passes in a 48-37 upset of the Steelers.
Bucs vs. Saints on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET will be played in the Superdome in New Orleans, so no weather worries there. Tom Brady hasn't played many dome games in his career dating to his Patriots days considering the only AFC franchises currently with dome stadiums are the Colts and Texans. Brady's Bucs were 1-1 in a dome this season, losing Week 1 in New Orleans (34-23) and winning Week 7 in Las Vegas (45-20). When domes aren't full of fans, the home-field advantage is hugely negated.
NFL Divisional Round weather forecasts at kickoff (as of Thursday afternoon)
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