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    Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL wild card odds, trends: Total sinking fast with sub-zero temperatures projected for Kansas City Saturday night

    The Dolphins will leave warm Miami and deal with frigid temperatures in Kansas City.
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    Not that long ago, the Miami Dolphins were in the driver's seat to be the AFC's top seed in the postseason, but following a 21-14 home loss to Buffalo on Sunday night, they finished as the AFC's No. 6 seed and will have to visit AFC West champion Kansas City this Saturday night. The early forecast for Saturday is grim -- a ow of minus-2 with winds of 10-15 mph. The total opened at 45.5 on the SportsLine consensus but is already down to 42.5 and dropping fast because of the weather.

    Miami largely beat up on bad teams this season and went 1-5 with a minus-91 point differential against the current playoff field. Only the Giants (6-11 record) and Commanders (4-13) were worse in such games. The Dolphins have the second-longest longest active drought without a playoff win (since 2000) and are tied for the second-longest streak of playoff trips without a conference title game appearance (10 straight seasons).

    Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa – who won the NFL passing yardage title with 4,624 yards – grew up in Hawaii and played at Alabama, so he's not exactly known as a cold-weather quarterback.

    Here are Tagovailoa's numbers in NFL games with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or colder:



    Completion percentage


    Passing touchdowns




    Passer rating


    According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Miami has never won a playoff game with a kickoff temperature of 46 degrees or colder. The Dolphins have won two where that temperature was 47: Christmas 1971 in Kansas City and Super Bowl VIII against the Vikings in 1974 in Houston. The coldest temperature for a Dolphins home playoff win was 55 degrees on Dec. 23, 1973, a 34-16 rout of Cincinnati. Miami is 0-10 overall in its past 10 games with a kickoff temperature below 40 degrees, including playoffs. That's the NFL's longest active such streak. 

    It's too early to know whether running back Raheem Mostert, receiver Jaylen Waddle and cornerback Xavien Howard will play after all three sat out vs. Buffalo. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (six sacks this season) sustained a foot injury in the third quarter and didn't return. Miami has already lost Bradley Chubb (11.0 sacks) and Jaelan Phillips (6.5 sacks) to season-ending injuries.

    Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City looks to become the third team to win at least one playoff game in six straight seasons (1991-96 Cowboys & 2011-18 Patriots). 

    This will be just the second time Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been forced to play a wild card game. The Chiefs were not their usual selves on offense this season, averaging just 22.4 points per game in Mahomes starts, by far the worst number of his career. The two-time MVP also averaged career-worsts in yards per attempt (7.0), TD-INT ratio (1.9), interceptions (14), losses (six) and passer rating (92.6).

    These teams met in Week 9 in Frankfurt, Germany, in the first-ever regular-season game there. The Chiefs won 21-14. Mahomes had two touchdown passes and Kansas City had a defensive score right before halftime for a 21-0 lead. All 14 Dolphins points came in the third quarter. Tagovailoa threw for 193 yards and a TD. Tyreek Hill had eight catches for 62 yards. Another big story line Saturday will be the All-Pro wideout's return to Kansas City for the first time since being traded to Miami. 

    SportsLine Projection Model AFC sims:

    AFC                               WC                 DIV           CONF ODDS    CONF         SB ODDS             SB
    Ravens100.00%72.60%+150 (40%)49.60%+330 (23.3%)28.00%
    Bills70.90%44.70%+290 (25.6%)19.20%+650 (13.3%)8.80%
    Chiefs64.20%32.20%+450 (18.2%)13.90%+950 (9.5%)6.70%
    Texans49.60%13.90%+2200 (4.3%)4.20%+4500 (2.2%)1.60%
    Browns50.40%16.00%+1300 (7.1%)5.50%+2800 (3.4%)2.40%
    Dolphins35.80%13.10%+800 (11.1%)5.40%+1600 (5.9%)2.40%
    Steelers29.10%7.60%+7500 (1.3%)2.30%+15000 (0.7%)0.80%

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    Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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