12.5 ... not sure I've seen a lower team total all season. And it makes some sense with Brady Cook set to become the first Jets undrafted rookie quarterback to start a game since J.J. Jones in 1975 when he spelled Joe Namath for a game (I honestly was not aware Namath was still a Jet at that point and I've never in my life heard of J.J. Jones; I'm sure he hasn't heard of me either). The Jets can throw caution to the wind because they aren't playing for anything. Just start chukking bombs and see what sticks. They can't get to 13? Our model has 17. And if we get a special teams or defensive TD then I think we cash for sure.

DraftKings. Rookie safety Malachi Moore has cleared this line in four of his last six games. Now an every-down fixture in the secondary, the uptick in tackles coincides with Moore lining up more in the tackle box. Proficient against both the run and in coverage, I like the matchup here. Not only are the Jaguars a top four opponents for safety tackles (per PFF data), but the Jets should struggle to hold on the ball (even more than usual) with rookie Brady Cook making his first start under center.

I'm expecting the Jaguars to control time of possession, putting Jets strong safety Malachi Moore in position to make lots of tackles. He's recorded seven and 10 stops the past two weeks. Jacksonville's offense generates the fourth-most tackles for opposing safeties (14.9 per game).

Bhayshul Tuten did not play a snap after fumbling last week, enabling Travis Etienne to get 20 carries. Etienne racked up 70-plus rushing yards for the seventh time. Now Etienne gets a great matchup against a Jets team whose run defense has suffered without Quinnen Williams. Since the trade, New York has given up 145.4 rushing yards per game (sixth-most). In addition, two starting linebackers did not practice Wednesday. Over the past three games, the Jets are giving up 4.7 yards per carry. This should be a positive game script for Etienne and the Jags.