While this does set up as a fade spot for the Buccaneers considering they are injured offensively, on short rest and on the road for the third time in four weeks, there is still a gulf between these teams. Tampa Bay may be down key weapons, but it still has Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Rachaad White, who can at least keep defenses honest. The Saints have improved defensively, but they’ve only defeated the Giants losing every other game by 5+ points, three such defeats at home. Baker Mayfield should be able to attack New Orleans downfield even without his top wide receivers, and the Detroit game was a wake-up call for both sides of the ball.

This 5-2 Bucs team is now decimated by injuries, and is getting thin at WR. If breakout rookie Emeka Egbuka gets banged up again, Tampa Bay could be in trouble. Baker Mayfield had been playing at an elite level, but is coming off an ugly loss against the Lions, who had practice squad DB’s playing in their secondary. Mayfield was missing open throws and getting hit hard, so I’m not buying an obvious Tampa Bay bounceback (98% of money on Bucs ML!). I think the Saints can score on this beatable Bucs defense, that has DT Vita Vea banged up and is now without LB Haason Reddick. Even though the Saints burnt me last week, I maintain that this team is better than they’ve looked.

I’m going right back to the proverbial well with Chris Olave in what looks to be another potential ceiling/spike week. Olave remains a significant positive regression candidate, despite two consecutive impressive outings. Olave’s target share, targets per route run, first read target rate, and his expected points per game all point to untapped upside. In a matchup against a Bucs defense that has been a pass funnel and is missing numerous starters, this is a spot where Olave could deliver another strong performance.

Cade Otton has significantly increased his target share, recording 5, 6, and 9 targets in his last three games due to the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay's pass-heavy red-zone approach (29 passes vs. 19 carries inside the 20-yard line) makes him a primary target. New Orleans has allowed eight passing TDs to non-WR positions, creating an ideal mismatch for a receiving tight end. Otton has not scored a touchdown in his last 12 games, but he did find the end zone against the Saints in New Orleans for two consecutive seasons. Otton has 10 career touchdowns, with half scoring in a dome.

The Buccaneers are coming off a brutal Monday Night Football drubbing to the Detroit Lions, losing WR Mike Evans and DE Haason Reddick to injury. This short week poses significant challenges for Tampa Bay, as they have only six days to prepare, and their schedule has been particularly demanding with three games played on short rest this season. New Orleans has been competitive at home with all three losses by 7 points or less. Rookie head coach Kellen Moore has his team playing hard. Give me the home divisional dog in this spot.