Buffalo has gone eight straight games as a team without a turnover, including playoffs, which is tied with the 2024 Chiefs for the longest streak with zero turnovers since 1933. Josh Allen's last pick was Week 16 last year vs. New England and that's his only INT in his past 12. Presumably the Bills get up big and get Allen out of there by the start of the fourth quarter.

In sum: too many points to spot any team (unless torn asunder by injury) this early in the season. The Saints were no pushovers in their first two outings, with losses by seven and five points. While Buffalo's offense can play Name That Score, the Bills' points allowance through three games ranks 20th, which offers hope to beleagured QB Spencer Rattler and crew. Two key defenders, LB Matt Milano and DT Ed Oliver, have not practiced this week. Most other sportsbooks have dropped the spread to 15.5, so the extra vig might be worth it to Saints backers to secure the extra point.

The Bills are coming into this game on extra rest after playing on Thursday in Week 3, and I expect the offense to come out firing. Buffalo has scored at least seven in all three first quarters this year, while its opponent has reached seven once. The Saints have yet to score in the first quarter while giving up more than three points twice. I'm hesitant to play the full game spread as New Orleans could cover through the backdoor if Allen is pulled at some point, but we don't have to worry about that with this first-quarter play.