The Cowboys run game was inept for most of this season, but down the stretch RB Rico Dowdle has come alive. Dowdle has rushed for 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games, and faces a Commanders defense that ranks 5th-worst in the league in rush yards allowed (136.7 ypg). Dowdle is on a one-year deal for just 1.2M with the Cowboys, so I imagine he’ll want to finish the year strong, rack up the stats, and increase his market value.

Daniels has a rush of 23 yards or more in 4 of the last 5 games and has 66 rushing yards or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Ran 7 times for 74 yards in the first Dallas game. With his hip back to being 100 percent his legs are carrying this offense in key spots. Dallas allowing 5.6 yards/rush to QBs, 29th in the NFL and -21.68 Rush D EPA vs QB runs, 32nd in the NFL. Will be playing this 60 and above in alt markets.

Daniels is made for the clutch and the Commanders want this game as they fight for playoff position. He has hit this in 5 straight games and their run game is on the skids, unless Daniels is running it himself. Dallas has a very beat up defense. The ability to make things happen off script will be a big problem for the Cowboys. Daniels hit this in the first game with Dallas.

Jayden Daniels played one of his worst games of the season in the first meeting, when I think his hip was still an issue. And Cooper Rush played his best. I don't believe that will be the case here with no CeeDee Lamb among others. Daniels can cover this with his legs and guile. The rookie is 7-3 ATS as a favorite and Dallas is a disaster at home; 2-6 ATS failing to cover by 12+ PPG, by far worst in NFL. They won't sweep this series and could lose big.

The Commandos will likely be motivated to try to win to get the Rams instead of the Eagles in the playoffs. Dallas will be up vs a rival. Dallas is 6-2 to the over at home, averaging 50 points and 11-5 over since '23 (51.6 PPG). WSH 5-2 over on road, avg 52.7 points. Both defenses are vulnerable ,Jayden Daniels slinging it around. The first meeting produced 60 points and Daniels wasn't 100% then. WSH rolled up 412 yards despite Dalla holding ball over 35 mins. Over in 6 of last 7 at Dallas (55 PPG) and 8 of 9; 7 of those games totaled 54 or more points.