In a late-season meeting of teams long erased from the list of playoff contenders, little things matter. In this case, Las Vegas had a travel day from hell Saturday, with travel delays hours by weather and plane malfunction. Arriving past midnight is hardly conducive to an optimum performance with a noontime (local) kickoff. The Raiders do not score much with Aidan O'Connell at QB. They have gone 10-5 on Unders when he starts, including the last four. The Saints, even with backups at QB and RB, need not generate many points for a mini-upset.

While I’m not in love with betting on the Raiders as road favorites, I feel obligated to fade Saints QB Spencer Rattler. This Raiders defense actually grades out middle of the pack, and they can stifle the Saints again, who are coming off a shutout loss. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave will remain sidelined, MVS is questionable with a chest injury, and two starting offensive linemen have been ruled out. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I give Vegas a significant edge at QB in this matchup with Aidan O’Connell under center. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce made it clear last week that Vegas is not tanking for draft position, and will be playing hard to finish the season.

Even though he wasn't targeted last week, Terrace Marshall Jr. ran a season-high 19 routes. I like him to make at least one catch Sunday against his hometown team, the Saints. Marshall grew up in Bossier City, La., and starred at LSU. When he played for the Panthers, Marshall had three games against the Saints in which he caught multiple passes.

The Saints are going with Spencer Rattler again despite their embarrassing performance in Green Bay. They just put two offensive linemen on IR. Vegas should build off its home win behind Aidan O'Connell, who managed to extend drives by scrambling. Look for O'Connell, Brock Bowers and a gritty Raiders defense to lead Vegas to its second straight win.

The market is backing the Raiders in this spot against a Saints team shut out on Monday, and I don't get it. Vegas didn't play well in the win over Jacksonville and has scored 20+ points just five times this season. The Saints defense, which kept them in the close loss against Washington two weeks ago, is the most trustworthy unit in this game. To top it off, there's a chance the Saints have Derek Carr and Chris Olave back for this game. Even if they don't, the Raiders are an autofade as road favorites for me.