The mini resurgence of the Panthers has given the downtrodden franchise some hope for the future. But making them the favorite in this matchup is a step too far against a tough-luck Cowboys club that still has the better personnel. Provided Dallas doesn't no-show on the heels of its heartbreaker against Cincy, the Cowboys are the value side.

Rico Dowdle has started to gobble up the entire backfield share for the Cowboys...but the market is catching up to his uptick in production. I just can't get to this number on a short week in a match-up that might be more challenging than it appears on paper

I’m already a bit late to the party on the spread, but I think Carolina -3 or better has value. The Panthers haven’t been favored in a game since 2022, so understandably public bets are on the Cowboys as underdogs. However, I’m not sure how much motivation this Dallas team will play with after last week’s loss. Micah Parsons was despondent on the sidelines after the muffed block recovery. The Cowboys will be without CB Trevon Diggs, and starting Center Cooper Beebe. It looks as if Carolina will get back DE Jadeveon Clowney & CB Jaycee Horn. Cooper Rush is really starting to struggle, and Carolina has covered five straight and continue to play competitively. I think they are the rightful favorites in this spot.

With Jonathan Brooks out for the season, this is Chubba Hubbard's backfield for the Carolina Panthers. Last week, he got 26 carries and I expect a similar workload against the Cowboys. As a home favorite, Hubbard has the workload, projected game script, and matchup working in his favor. The Cowboys allow the 3rd most rushing yards per game (171.6). I love the workload and matchup for Hubbard to soar past his prop Sunday.

The price for CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown Sunday is almost two to one. I love that price for the alpha receiver of the Cowboys facing a weak pass defense against the Panthers. The downgrade of quarterback play is already baked in. Lamb has the 7th most red zone targets among wide receivers. We saw him score the first touchdown on Monday night and I like him to score again Sunday.

Bryce Young has been a different QB since head coach Dave Canales benched him and brought him back. Although Young only threw for 191 yards last week against an elite Eagles secondary, he threw for 220+ against the Broncos, Chiefs and nearly 300 against a weak Bucs pass defense two weeks ago. Dallas is bottom 10 in the league in pass yards allowed (223.4 ypg), and DB’s Trevon Diggs & Jourdan Lewis are both ‘questionable’ to play this game. After last week’s loss, I’m not sure how much motivation Dallas has left. Young should clear this number.

In the three games since returning from Injured Reserve, Thielen has topped this number easily each time with 57-99-102 yards. Over the last two weeks, he leads the NFL with a 28% target share and has 17 catches on 21 targets. Against a Dallas secondary which has given up more than this number to nine receivers over the last seven weeks, I like Thielen's hot streak to continue.

Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL, Miles Sanders is on IR, and Raheem Blackshear is dealing with a chest injury. Even if Blackshear plays, he's not going to affect Chuba Hubbard's projected massive workload. Blackshear does not have a carry this season. Hubbard should get at least 25 touches in this great matchup against Dallas, which just lost DeMarvion Overshown to a season-ending knee injury.

He could rush for 100+ vs Dallas no problem, but is always a threat in the horizontal passing game as well. Hubbard is averaging 19 touches for 89 scrimmage yards per game, and Dallas has been getting torched by running backs all season. Chris Browns just went off on the Cowboys for 123, Joe Mixon lit them up for 153 from scrimmage and Dallas has a short week to prepare and recover here. Bijan Robinson went over 140 against them and even some back-up RBs have gone over 100 vs this outfit. More injuries to the front seven are also a factor. Hubbard will get his hands on the ball a ton. Dallas is last in rush D EPA and 28th in success rate.

Bryce Young has significantly improved in recent weeks. Since Week 9, Young's Total QBR of 60.0 ranks 13th in the NFL, surpassing even established stars like Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Bengals and will be playing in a short week without their starting center and stud linebacker. Cooper Rush is not a good quarterback, as evidenced by his QBR of 30.4. The Panthers rank 9th in opponent punt return yards, while Dallas ranks 28th. Look for Chuba Hubbard to run all over this Cowboys' defense, which ranks 25th in run defense. Carolina lost to Dallas 33-10 at home last season. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl, returning to their home stadium after three consecutive losses.

The Cowboys suffered a tough loss Monday after botching the recovery of a blocked punt, and with their season over, I'm not sure they recover for this game on the short week. Cooper Rush was shaky against a bad Bengals defense and Carolina's defense kept the Panthers in the game against the Eagles. The Carolina offense only gave up one sack in that matchup, so I oddly might like the Panthers on both sides of the ball right now in this matchup, meaning this line should probably be Carolina -3 at least.