Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing an average of 28.7 points per game this season. The Texans have talent all over the field, and are in a spot where I expect them to come out firing. I expect 27+ points for Houston here.

The Texans should come out firing after their loss to the lowly Titans last week. The rosters here aren't really comparable, and the culture DeMeco Ryans has built in Houston dwarfs what's going on in Jacksonville. The Jags' defense is among the worst in the NFL, and Houston should have no issues scoring. I expect a nice bounce back for the Texans here.

Admittedly apprehensive here with the Texans, who seem unable to cover when I pick them. Simply put, this is not the team that was promised ahead of the season when it was thought Houston could go on a run in Year 2 under C.J. Stroud. Against this Jaguars team, though? Trevor Lawrence is back, but it’s not like Jacksonville was beating anyone of significance with him. The Jags also had the bye, but Doug Peterson does not win off the bye, and his defense is still the worst in the NFL. The only way to stop Houston is to get in front of Joe Mixon. That might happen for a half but not the game. With -3 available, I’m playing the better team. Period.

The Texans are coming off an inexcusable loss to the Titans, so I expect a very inspired effort here from Houston. The Jaguars have had all kinds of issues on both sides of the ball, but they have been particularly disappointing on offense. This is a spot where I expect the teams to trade punts early, with 6-7 points scored in the first quarter.

Teams have figured out that if you take Joe Mixon away, you stop the Texans offense. But the Jags pass defense is awful and they get no pass rush and this is a great bounce-back spot for Stroud. Nico Collins looks better every week and Stroud has 2 TDs passes in all 3 career games vs JAX and the Jags have allowed a staggering 23 TDS passes already this season (31st), and this prop has hit in 7 of the last 9 games against them.

Everything here depends on whether Trevor Lawrence is able to play or not, but I expect the Texans offense to score a bunch either way. That unit has struggled lately aside from the Dallas game, but the Jaguars are the perfect opponent to get right against, ranking 32nd in net yards per pass attempt and letting every competent offense get to 400+ yards and usually score a bunch of points. Houston scored 24 in the first meeting with Joe Mixon and Tank Dell missing the game, and they should top that with those guys back.