I bet De'Von Achane's receiving prop and alts on Monday night against the Rams and came up short. But Achane's usage in the passing game is still very strong. He's had an 18% or higher target share in all of Tua Tagovailoa's healthy games this season. Last week, Achane led the Dolphins in first-read target share. His receiving line went down and I'm back on his receiving prop this week to soar over.

The NFL has put the Dolphins in a bad spot, making them play Monday in L.A. and then hosting a team off a bye six days later. But since my power ratings line for this game is -9, I'm still going to lay the points with the less rested team (teams off a bye are 4-8 ATS this year anyway). The Miami defense showed up in a major way on Monday, and they should be able to give a bad Raiders offense the same issues. While Tyreek Hill playing through an injury may limit his effectiveness, I expect that the Dolphins have too many weapons for the Raiders defense to contain. This feels like a 24-10 type of game.

In 4 of 5 Tua Tagovailoa starts for Miami this season, Achane has reached 100 total yards. In each of those games, he's received at least 16 touches. Against an underperforming Raiders defense, who have already given up 100+ total yards five times to opposing running backs, look for 20 or so rushes/receptions and at least 110 total yards. Barring injury, this should be a bounce back game for the second year RB after a slow game on Monday night.

The Dolphins defense surprised a lot of people on Monday, looking like the '85 Bears on most third downs. They should have continued success here, as the bye was unlikely to fix the Raiders' massive offensive issues. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders defense is a bit underrated but has dealt with a tough schedule and terrible field position set up by the offense. Maybe that's an issue here, but with a few injuries of note on the Miami offense, it's also possible we don't see a huge point total from the Dolphins. I don't think the Raiders sniff 20, so I like backing the Under here.

Dolphins being back home, with something to play for, against a horrible opponent is Mike McDaniel's kind of jam. This is where they build (faux?) confidence and bad their starts. Tua finally had 2 passing TDs in a game in Week 9, and he is more than overdue for it here. Looks more comfortable by the week and the timing in the passing game has increased by the week. This used to be something you can write in Sharpie a week before the game with Miami playing at home. Raiders have allowed 7 passing TDs in their past two games (yes, against Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes) and that secondary is starting to look cooked.