Kyren Williams has been an absolute workhorse for the Rams in an era where teams really don't lean on their feature backs like they used to. With that being said, Williams hasnt been very effective as a pass catcher, nor has he been running many routes and his receiving market share is just 9% which puts him 27th amongst fellow RBs. It is also worth noting the Dolphins have surrendered 27 receptions to enemy RBs, the lowest total in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill will both be in action on Monday night. The Dolphins are simply on another level when those two play. I expect Miami to score closer to 28 points in this Monday night matchup.

I expect plenty of offense here, not that we know both teams will have a complete offensive arsenal to work with. A 1H score of 14-10, which is completely realistic, gets the job done here.

If you follow my DFS picks, you already know I love this spot for Achane. The former Texas A&M star is a threat to break off a big run at any moment, and the Rams haven't been particularly strong against the run this season.

I like this line with or without Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins' lineup. The Rams run a pass funnel defense that sets up well for opposing tight ends. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers caught 10 passes for 93 yards against the Rams in Week 7, and while Smith and Bowers aren't on the same level as receivers, I do think the Dolphins' tight end will have a big night on MNF.

Dolphins RB De’Von Achane is a dynamic dual-threat back who QB Tua Tagovailoa utilizes often in the pass game. Achane has cleared this receiving yards total in four games this season, all four which were started by Tagovailoa. With star WR Tyreek Hill’s status and health in question, I expect Miami to use Achane as a receiver often. Achane is coming off back-to-back games with 50+ receiving yards, 6+ receptions, and 8 targets.

Over is actually favored for this prop on Puka Nacua and he does have carries in two of three games this year, but I can't imagine that Sean McVay runs him on a jet sweep or the like considering the knee troubles that Nacua has been dealing with. We know Nacua isn't getting more than one carry and maybe that's tackled for negative yardage or 2 yard-gain. And if the Rams get either up or down big, no way they risk him on a running play. We won a similar prop on Kirk Cousins for Sunday.

The Rams are averaging 28.0 ppg and the Dolphins are averaging 27.0 ppg over the last two weeks. Miami is a completely different offensive team with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill on the field, and the Rams are significantly better when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are available. Both teams have been average (at times above average) this season on defense. This is a line that I believe should have been set in the low 50's. Solid value here.

Last week Nacua was ejected in the second quarter for throwing a punch. I expect he’ll look to redeem himself on Monday night. Nacua returned from injury in Week 7 (far sooner than many expected) and immediately was a focal point of the Rams offense, going for 7 receptions & 106 yards. Before he was ejected against the Seahawks, Nacua was targeted 4 times. I expect a now fully healthy Nacua to get a large portion of the target share tonight.

Expect Tyreek Hill to have his best game this season, at least since Week 1, in the spotlight of Monday Night Football. The cheetah will be cut loose because Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback. Hill has gone for 72 yards and 80 yards in his last two games and his longest reception has been 28 yards and 30 yards in the two games. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Tua came back and tonight he should. I think he has the biggest impact in the game for the Dolphins. Over-yardage is the best bet.

The Dolphins only have two wins this season and two covers but the two covers came in the last four games in the last two games with Tua Tagovailoa have gone over. Tua looked sharp back there with 27 points scored in each of their last two games and he's taking 2 seconds to throw and not letting anybody hit him which is good news and when he runs I cringe with the hope that he'll be safe. I like the Rams a little bit but lean towards the over with the Dolphins helping the cause more and the cheetah Tyreek Hill being the reason for offensive success. Just the over in this game.

No shot this is a risk worth taking for the Rams. An injured Puka Nuca needs to be creating space to stay healthy, not playing running back. I know he got ejected last game, but we didn't see any rush attempts. I have a hard time imagining they use him in that way anytime soon.

This is really a bet on one reception. Raheem Mostert averages 8 yards a reception, and he is 4-2 to this over on the season. This Rams pass rush will force Miami to get rid of the ball quickly, and he will be a solid option.

This is the last place hanging 24 1/2 as a first half number and the juice is not objectionable. So let’s grab this now. 24 a key number for just 2 quarters.

The basic game plan against the Rams is to run run and run some more. Achane how has the job and the confidence of the coaching staff. I project him at 15 carries so this is nice value

Raheem Mostert has lost two fumbles in his past three games. After his fumble at Buffalo, the carries tilted heavily toward De'Von Achane. Look for that split to carry over Monday night and for Achane to receive at least 13 carries. Opponents have been running the ball against the Rams 49.5 percent of the time -- the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

De'Von Achane is projected to get approximately 13 carries against the Rams and I'm expecting his talent and the Dolphins offensive line to propel him past this longest rush number. The Rams rush defense has been better as of late, but I don't think they have enough to stymie what can be an explosive Miami offense. The Dolphins will need the run to set up the pass and the game should stay close throughout, meaning the rush attack will be in play for all four quarters. Achane has hit this number in 2 of his last 3 while averaging 12 carries across that 3 game span.

With the Cardinals in a gallop and Christian McCaffrey back for the 49ers, there's no time to waste in the NFC West for the Rams, who have recovered from a 1-4 start to win their last three. It has helped Matthew Stafford immensely to have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available once again, though it was Demarcus Robinson making a circus catch in OT to beat the Seahawks last week. Sean McVay's defense also came up with crucial plays in Seattle, including Kamren Kinchens returning a Geno Smith interception for 103 yards and a TD. Meanwhile the magic seems gone from the Dolphins, still losing even as Tua Tagovailoa has returned to active duty, and a good chance no Tyreek Hill for tonight. Play Rams

The Rams give up the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, so this sets up well for Jonnu Smith. Over the past four games, Smith has averaged 5.3 catches and 56 receiving yards. With Tyreek Hill (wrist) iffy for Monday Night Football, I bet Smith to clear this yardage prop.

Kyren Williams is averaging just 5.8 yards per reception. When Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua are healthy, Williams typically isn't a big part of the passing game. Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Seiler, a team captain, returns this week from a two-game absence. In the six games he's played, Miami has given up an average of 20 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Williams might make 1-3 catches, but I bet against him clearing this prop total.

It's been a brutal season for this potential NFL Offensive Player Of The Year, from his serious injury after a great start to Week 1, to aggravating his knee in practice and getting ejected last week. But he loves the big stage and Matt Stafford loves throwing to him and with the Rams offense featuring an array of pass catchers again, it's hard to know who to double when and Nacua will be able to find holes in the zone D and get YAC against this defense. Nacua has played 9 home games and has at least 70 receiving yards in 7 of them and averages 99 receiving yards per game at home in the regular season.

The Rams have dealt with some OL issues and the traditional run game hasn't been as robust as it was a year ago. Sean McVay loves this kid and he lost his emotions a week ago and got himself ejected but I suspect he sees plenty of love from his play caller in this matchup. Nacua is one of their premier blockers, with a deep understanding of their run concepts and he features in their gadget stuff as their joker TE/WR and I see a few end arounds or jet sweeps in his future.

We liked the surging Rams anyways, especially with a few offensive linemen back from injury, but now we might get the added bonus of no Tyreek Hill, who is iffy with a wrist injury. Tend to think he plays but wouldn't change this play. This obviously would go up some if Hill is ruled out -- rather curious how the books value him in a bit of a down year.

The Rams have won three in a row outright after emerging from a bye. The Dolphins have lost three in a row straight-up. So why is L.A. giving a single point? The answer: overexuberance after the return of Miami QB Tua Tagovalioa from a concussion layoff. The Dolphins' offense, to be sure, is better with him, but the defense has lagged, especially against the pass. That bodes ill for Miami with the return of the long-absent dazzling WR tandem of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua last Sunday. Oddsmakers tend not to allot enough points to the 'Fins as underdogs. In that scenario, they have failed to cover in seven of the last eight outings.

In three games this season where both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp started, Stafford threw for at least 279 yards. Take it back to 2023: Stafford had at least 279 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games with both Nacua and Kupp. Now toss in a Dolphins defense whose pass rush has collected ONE sack over its past three games and it makes sense to buy into Stafford having time to throw. I also think Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense will have some success, forcing the Rams to keep a balanced approach, if not a pass-first mentality. I would play this one up to 259.5.

Fortunate or not, the Rams have won three in a row as they prepare to host struggling Miami. Offensive linemen Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila have returned to practice, and both could suit up Monday. That's another boost for Matthew Stafford, who has all his top weapons available. The improving Rams defense sacked Geno Smith seven times last week and LA has forced three turnovers in each of the past three games. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to make a couple key mistakes as the Rams continue their annual second-half surge.

Tua Tagovailoa seems to be finding Jonnu Smith more and more as Smith has four straight games with at least four catches, and his four overall games this season with at least five receptions is tied for fifth in the league among tight ends. A handful of TEs have had at least four catches vs. the Rams this year, led by Brock Bowers' 10.

The market has steamed toward the Dolphins after this line was Rams -2.5, and I don't agree with it. Tua Tagovailoa could be in trouble against an emerging Rams defense coming off a seven-sack game, and it's fair to wonder what the Dolphins have left after disappointing losses to the Cardinals and Bills. Miami has scored 27 in two straight since Tua's return, yet it doesn't feel like the offense has quite clicked, while the defense has struggled against good offenses this year. I count the Rams in that group and expect them to get the win here.

Rams D is getting fierce; only problem is allowing too many deep balls but Tua Tagovailoa is throwing short. Rams allowing just 3.7/carry last 5 weeks, 6th in passing rating and 5th in pressure rate. Tua 1-3 this season with 4 straight losses. MIA 2-6 ATS, failing to cover by 8.06/G, 31st. Rams have the far better head coach who knows Mike McDaniel's slumping offense inside out. Fish are 30th in sack rate; that will be a problem on the road here. Dolphins season over after crushing loss to BUF; I see them being flat here. Rams were elite team in 2nd half of last season, can doing it again. McDaniel 1-5 last 6 as road dog, failing to cover on avg by 18 points.