Trevor Lawrence is out putting the Jaguars in the hands of Mac Jones. You know, the guy who completed 65% of his passes the last two seasons for 24 TD and 23 INT. That guy – against a Brian Flores defense. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson should have a field day against Jacksonville’s bottom-ranked pass D, and the Vikings should again flex against an inferior opponent after being tested more significantly the last few weeks. Minnesota is also in a must-win spot here given it is trying to keep pace with Detroit atop the division. This might come back to -6.5 before kickoff.

Minnesota brings pressure like no other team and in part because of that leads the NFL with 13 picks. I think we know Mac Jones' history in the league. I'm sure the Jags would like to play it very conservative today with him under center but he might have to throw a lot if the Vikings get out to a nice lead, which seems quite possible.

Look for T.J. Hockenson to be more involved in the gameplan in his second game back from his knee injury. He was targeted four times last week while playing 45 percent of the snaps and running 23 routes. I'm expecting 6-plus targets Sunday, so I bet the Over on his receiving yards. Last season, Hockenson averaged 8.5 targets.

The Jaguars are giving up 4.1 yards per rush on the year to RBs, which sounds pretty good. But that number is weighted by the Patriots run game cratering and the Dolphins run game struggling in Week 1. You could cherry-pick those games and the Jaguars have allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Or, you could just look at what Philly and Green Bay have done in their past two games -- 4.9 yards per carry -- and apply that here. The gamescript against a Jaguars offense without Trevor Lawrence should put Jones in position to get a lot of work in a blowout win. And he's had at least 94 rush yards in the Vikings' pair of blowout wins.

News of Mac Jones starting in this game for the Jaguars just means the Vikings will be more aggressive than usual, which speaks volumes. Jones doesn't provide the same level of escapability that Trevor Lawrence does, and it'll show up bigly against Minnesota.

This spread has shot up with news that an injury might keep Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence sidelined. Their signing of veteran C.J. Beathard lends credence to such reports. Jax has improved lately, but the absence of Lawrence would halt the trend. The Vikings have just two losses, straight-up and ATS, one of which was a no-shamer by two points to the Detroit Lions. Their balloon has deflated slightly after a monstrous start, but they remain imposing. Minnesota backers might grab this number in case it creeps up to seven.

Justin Jefferson is averaging 98 receiving yards per game and the Vikings are facing a team with zero pass rush and one of the worst secondaries int he NFL that is getting shredded by quality pass catchers. Jags allow 9.1 yards/att to WRs (31st), and 68.2% completions (29th) and a QB rating of 111.3 (31st). Sam Darnold has a solid connection with him, and getting open here shouldn't be an issue.

Vikings are not a typical dome team: 14-7-3 ATS outdoors since '21, best cover% in NFL in that span. They are 8-1-2 ATS in last 11 outdoors. NFC North is beating up on other divisions and Jags just had a super lucky cover at Philly. Jags D is a joke (32nd in yards/play; 31st in RZ) with no pass rush to make Sam Darnold see ghosts. Trevor Lawrence has 22nd passer rating vs blitz and Brian Flores will light him up here. MIN is 7-2-3 ATS on road last two seasons with 6th best cover margin. JAX 6-7 ATS at home, with no home field advantage with a lame duck head coach. Lawrence is 5-13 ATS vs NFC with 12 losses of 6+ points.