Maybe I'm buying into the revenge angle too much here, but I see a path for the Bengals as a live underdog. Sure they go to Baltimore without their second best offensive weapon in Tee Higgins, but Joe Burrow has shown an ability to adjust. The short passing game should be the preferred attack against a Ravens team getting pressure at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL this season (28.7%). Cincy's defense isn't a brick wall but they held up well in the first meeting en route to blowing multiple double-digit leads in the 4th. The Bengals have actually offered better value away from home this year, where they're perfect ATS.

I can't help but think this is a pass heavy game script. Lamar Jackson is dealing with some nagging injuries, and we likely won't see many designed runs. Odds are implying at least 3 touchdowns for the Ravens tonight, and I'm willing to bet a 2 Pass to 1 Rush ratio for the floor. The model projects 2 passing TDs as well.

I like Mark Andrews in this spot. He is a very good player who is getting healthier. His bad games have come in unusual game scripts. I think he catches 4 or 5. Over.

This is just too large of a number for me. Even last time they played it started slowly. Short week division game. No Tee Higgins. Under. Half unit.

Initially expected this line to surge. With Tee Higgins, this is a play. Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase combined to light up an injured Ravens secondary for four TDs in Cincinnati, a game that they lost yet we covered at Ravens -2.5. The Bengals are now 2-8 ATS against AFC North teams of late with an 0-5 ATS run in this rivalry. Their only wins and covers this season are against poor teams. Baltimore seemed to find answers to its secondary struggles, and Cincy will not be able to rely on Chase Brown as much given the Ravens' NFL-best run defense. Derrick Henry should have another huge game. Lamar Jackson, too, given the Bengals’ struggles rushing the passer. Take this up to -6.

Baltimore is 2-1-1 ATS at home this season. The Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Baltimore. The Ravens have scored 27 points, or more, in their last three games against Cincinnati. From top to bottom, the Ravens are far by the better team but when Joe Burrow is an underdog of three points, or more, he’s 16-3 ATS. It’s a short week and Cincinnati should look to make this into a slower style type of game to possibly sneak out a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Bengals have been solid against the pass this season allowing 212.4 passing yards per game. Part of that can be attributed to game flow, however. Jackson is on track to repeat as NFL MVP and win the award for the third time in his career. The Ravens are absolutely loaded on offense, and there's no reason to believe this Cincinnati team will go into M&T Bank Stadium and slow down Jackson. I expect 250+ passing yards for the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner on TNF.

Burrow has underrated scrambling ability and has clipped this total 6 times already this season. Instead of staying in the pocket too long and taking a sack or forcing a throw, Burrow has been quicker to use his feet this season. In what rates to be a high-volume passing game, he could easily clip this on one play.

Bal traded for Johnson before last week and gave him a week to learn the playbook. Tonight the bubble wrap comes off….

Chase Brown should be on the field for every pass play. The backup is just signed and pass protection is the hardest thing to pick up quickly. This, Brown will be involved. One decent gain and we should be very close. I project 4 receptions

With the Ravens playing incredible run defense, it will be up to Joe Burrow to carry Cincinnati's offense. This number has moved to 24.5 at several books but is still available at 23.5 at FanDuel. He completed 30 passes in the first meeting with Baltimore, and he completed 27 and 26 passes the past two games. The Ravens are a true pass-funnel defense and the Bengals likely will be playing from behind.

I was targeting 10 as my number here, but the +124 price made 10.5 more appealing. This is a spot where both offenses are rolling, and two first quarter touchdowns is a very realistic possibility. This is a spot where I think taking some risk is justified.

No one would be surprised to see a shootout here. Both teams put up 41 points last week, and combined for 79 in the first meeting against one another. We also saw 378 passing yards from Lamar in that game. The Bengals defense believes stopping the run is still the best way to stop the Ravens, and if that's the case I have all the confidence in Lamar hanging in the pocket and hitting Zay Flowers amongst other weapons. We won't even see the Bengal's top corner Daxton Hill this time around, so the model has Lamar projected for 278 yards.

This may come as a bit of a surprise, but Andrews is having statistically the worst season of his career in 2024. The All-Pro tight end is averaging 32.1 receiving yards per game, and has only gone over this number three times this season. That said, I believe a lot of his statistical decline can be attributed to the emergence of fellow tight end Isaiah Likely. Likely has been ruled out for Thursday's matchup due to a hamstring injury, so the door is open for an increase in targets for Andrews. I have Andrews as one of my top DFS plays as well, and I expect him to have one of his best games of the season against the Bengals.

The Bengals will likely be without Tee Higgins for this divisional showdown, and Baltimore is rolling. The added dimension Derrick Henry brings to the Ravens' offense, is the X-factor for me here. I expect the Bengals to have some success against Baltimore's defense, but I have less faith in Cincinnati's ability to slow the Ravens down. Baltimore by a TD at home here.

This pick is all about Tee Higgins being listed as doubtful for Thursday night's AFC North matchup. Higgins' absence bumps Iosivas up to WR2 for the Bengals, and in a game where Cincinnati could be throwing the ball a lot, that should equate to plenty of targets for the second year pro out of Princeton.

Lamar Jackson is playing in 26th primetime regular season game tonight, and an interesting trend has emerged in his first 25. He's topped 50 rushing yards in 18 of those games, including all three spots this year. He's reached 50 rushing yards in his last six games against the Bengals, who are allowing the most rushing yards to QBs in the NFL this year. I'd play this number all the way up to 49.5.

Bengals RB Chase Brown is now the lead back. Zach Moss is on the IR, so Brown will see an increased workload. Last week against the Raiders, Brown had 5 receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown. Bengals QB Joe Burrow may very well look to utilize Brown in short area passing game again this week, against a Ravens front that is 5th in the NFL in sacks. Considering that WR Tee Higgins is likely to miss this game, I expect Brown to see 4-6 targets. Brown is an explosive runner who can rip off chunk plays on screens.

These teams met in Week 5, and played to a 41-38 overtime thriller. However, I don’t expect the same type of shootout in their second meeting. The total is five points higher than it was in their first matchup (48). Bengals WR Tee Higgins is ‘Doubtful’ for this game, and Bengals Tackle Orlando Brown is ‘Questionable’, with a lingering knee injury. If the Bengals have O-line issues, I don’t see them running up the score. Although this Ravens secondary has been vulnerable, they are getting healthier, and can focus on blanketing Ja’Marr Chase with Higgins out. The Ravens are 8-1 to the Over this season, but regression may be coming here. Lamar Jackson’s injury concerns from last week could cause Baltimore to play more conservatively.

Rematch of October 6 in CIncy, a wild 41-38 OT win for the Ravens marked by a big 51-yard run by Derrick Henry to set up Justin Tucker's game-winning field goal. This after Evan McPherson missed a 53-yard FG on the first Bengal possession of OT after some very conservative playcalling by the Bengals following a Baltimore fumble. That result and others have put Cincy in a precarious spot entering tonight as at 4-5 they currently sit outside of an AFC playoff spot, and well behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Joe Burrow, however, was firing away again last week vs. the Raiders after passing for 392 yards and 5 TDs against the Ravens last month. Play Bengals

It's never easy to commit to laying six points in a division game between two good teams, but I'm not so sure the Bengals are a good team. They've beat up on some bottom feeders lately to make their record respectable, but I think they have too many key injuries on offense and an inability to stop the Ravens on defense. Too much firepower for the Ravens and they win by a touchdown or more.

The Bengals lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation and face the Ravens' pass-funnel defense. Burrow threw 39 times in the first meeting. He's also coming off two straight games with at least 37 pass attempts. Throw in the fact that Cincy is expected to be playing catch-up, and I bet Burrow Over on his pass attempts.

0.2u play here on Ravens Team Total Under 30.5 (-120). Although it’s a short week, the Bengals' defense is improving. This is a clear must-win game for Cincinnati, and I believe they'll succeed in moving the ball and controlling the clock. This play is mostly about the number, as there are many paths to a Baltimore win with scores of 24, 27, 28, and 30 points. Reaching 31 points in a divisional game requires a lot to go right.

Tee Higgins played a huge role in the first Ravens game but he's likely to miss this one, and the Bengals likely will have trouble keeping up with Baltimore's scoring as a result. Cincy lost all three games Higgins missed before beating up on Vegas last week, and Baltimore has scored 30+ in five of their last six. Throw in questionable tags for Orlando Brown and B.J. Hill, and things could get ugly for Cincy on the short week. I have this line projected at Ravens -6.5, so I'll scoop up a rare 5.5 left in the market at Caesars.

The Ravens have won and covered the last three meetings against the Bengals with the two games in Cincinnati being won by only three points. Four of their five previous meetings were won by the Bengals and all five were covered by the Bengals. Six of the last eight meetings have gone over the total including the last three. The Ravens have the No. 1 offense in the NFL and are the No. 2 scoring team in the NFL at 31.4 points per game. That type of scoring has helped them get over the total in eight of their nine games. The Bengals have gone over six of their nine games thanks to their 26-point scoring per game. The over looks like the best bet.

The Bengals lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation and face a Ravens team that gives up the most explosive pass plays in the NFL and rates fourth-worst in EPA per dropback. Baltimore has allowed 18 TD passes, tied for third-most. That includes five TD passes to Joe Burrow in Week 5. Look for Burrow to clear this prop total for the seventh time in 10 games this season.

Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki has exploded without Tee Higgins in the lineup. Higgins' status remains in question for Thursday following a DNP on Monday. Even if Higgins plays through his quad injury -- which I doubt -- I don't think he resumes his normal role. Gesicki has gone for 91, 73 and 100 yards in the past three games he's played without Higgins. Joe Burrow completed passes to four different tight ends Sunday (one was just placed on IR), but Gesicki is easily the most explosive. The Ravens give up the most explosive passes per game (13.1 percent) and the third-most yards (67.6) to opposing tight ends. Look for Gesicki to record at least 44 receiving yards Thursday night.

I guess fading Baltimore's awful pass defense is a weekly thing for us now. Ideally, Joe Burrow throws a TD pass to running back Chase Brown for the second straight game as I'm on Brown for an anytime TD. Burrow has multiple TD passes in six games this year, including five against Baltimore in Week 5 in an OT shootout loss. The Ravens have surrendered 18 TD throws, third-worst in the league.

The Bengals already have ruled out RB Zack Moss a second straight game on Thursday, and Brown frankly has taken the featured role regardless. After zero TDs in the first three games with limited work, Brown has six TDs in the past six games and at least one in five of those. Baltimore does lead the NFL in rush defense so this is probably the only prop I like for Brown. In Week 5, he didn't have a rushing score against the Ravens and only 42 yards but did have a receiving score.

Burrow threw for 5 TDs last time these teams played and since then the Ravens pass rush has been even more tepid and they have benched two different starting free safeties. Okay. I expect another high-scoring game between these two and Joey B is going to have to sling it to keep pace. Ravens run D in number 1 and rushing TDs vs them in short supply, but they have allowed 18 passing TDs, tied for 3rd-most in the NFL. Burrow is over this in 4 of the last 6 games.

The Ravens run game is not always otherworldly, especially through the first 3 quarters. As was the case last time these teams met and Lamar threw 4 TDs. They shredded the Bengals with pace in tempo offense throwing out of heavy personnel and I suspect they pick right up here, knowing their D stinks and Joe Burrow can shred it. Lamar has 2+ TDs passes in 3 straight with 10 total in that span and 15 TD passes in his last 5 games and the best TD/INT ratio int he NFL (20/2). Bengals secondary stinks.

Ravens games averaging 55.7 total points, most in NFL. Ravens are NFL-high 8-1 to the over and it isn’t even close; games are going over on average by 8.9 point. These two teams just combined for 79 points a few weeks ago, there are major questions to be asked of both defenses and both offenses can score quite quickly. Each of these teams have gone over this total in five of their last seven games. I don’t trust either secondary even a little bit. Even Bo Nix gave the Ravens a scare in the first half until Baltimore played keep-away with the entire third quarter. Total already moving up.