The Chiefs are 10 points better defensively and seven points better offensively on a per-game basis compared to the Raiders this season, which is even more stark given Las Vegas has only faced one quality offense at full strength. While Patrick Mahomes has not looked like himself, DeAndre Hopkins linking up with Kansas City should allow him to stop forcing throws; it should also help Xavier Worthy get more single-coverage opportunities. None of this is to mention the dominant Chiefs defense, which should make life hell for Gardner Minshew. This is a huge spread for a road team, but let's take a flier.

Raiders TE Brock Bowers is having a breakout rookie campaign. Bowers has cleared this receiving yards total in each of the last three weeks, and saw double digit targets in all 3 games as well. The Chiefs have given up a league-high 83.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. With Davante Adams gone, Bowers in now option #1 in this Las Vegas offense. He should be in line for a huge target share. If the Raiders are playing from behind in a negative game script, Bowers will have plenty of opportunities to rack up yards.

Patrick Mahomes, similar to Tom Brady before him, is likely the wrong proverbial bear for opponents to poke. He vowed to get on-field revenge against the Raiders, who mocked his appearance, and it would be surprising if the Chiefs didn't go out of their way to humiliate Las Vegas if they can.

While home-field advantage as a whole has shrunk, it is eye-opening that the Chiefs are laying the most points in any game this season. It can be explained partly with them securing WR DeAndre Hopkins, but how much can he contribute after a few practice days? Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers is due back after a two-game absence, and DE Maxx Crosby is rarin' to go Mahomes-hunting now that he has recovered from injury. Crosby has more pressures of Pat than any other active player. Mahomes has thrown two more picks than TDs. KC cannot stay unbeaten for long if that ratio isn't flipped.

Brock Bowers is a rising star at his position and will be playing against a defense that has trouble defending tight ends. Kansas City has allowed 501 receiving yards in six games against tight ends, the second-most behind the Baltimore Ravens. I have this projected at 67 receiving yards.

Instead of doing Over Brock Bowers' receiving yards or receptions last week, both of which I loved (and went Over), we tried for the bigger win with a TD catch but no dice because the Raiders don't score TDs. Don't think it's hyperbole to say that right now Bowers is the best player on that offense, and he has crushed this number in three straight with double-digit targets in each.

DeAndre Hopkins appears set to make his debut with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. While Hopkins has some pedestrian numbers this season, I attribute that mostly to the Titans offense and Will Levis. It goes without saying that Patrick Mahomes is a significant upgrade at QB and I believe Hopkins is a perfect fit considering where he likes to operate at this stage of his career. I expect Mahomes and Hopkins to have instant chemistry and the pair to find success against the Raiders defense.

Brock Bowers already can make a strong case that he is the best Tight End in the NFL just 7 games into his rookie season. The 2x Mackey award winner possesses an elite target profile and leads the NFL in nearly every receiving metric despite playing with below average QBs and playing on a low volume passing team featuring Davante Adams. Now Bowers is the clear focal point of the Raiders offense after Las Vegas traded Adams. In Bowers first game sans Adams he finished with 14 targets, 10 receptions, 93 yards. Now he faces a Chiefs defense that has surrendered the most yards per game to opposing TEs by a significant margin. Bowers is a good bet for double digit targets.

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs lost a game was against the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day, 2023. The Raiders mocked Patrick Mahomes on social media and in the press. When reporters asked Mahomes for his thoughts on this, he said, "It will be addressed when it needs to be addressed." Mahomes is considered the best quarterback in the league and has extra motivation, which likely won't end well for Las Vegas. In that loss to the Raiders, he had 59 rushing yards and threw for 298 yards in one meeting and 235 yards in another last season. Although Mahomes has only thrown one passing touchdown in his previous three games, he should get back on track against Las Vegas.

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs lost a game was against the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day, 2023. The Raiders mocked Patrick Mahomes on social media and in the press. When reporters asked Mahomes for his thoughts on this, he said, "It will be addressed when it needs to be addressed." Mahomes is considered the best quarterback in the league and has extra motivation, which likely won't end well for Las Vegas. In that loss to the Raiders, he had 59 rushing yards and threw for 298 yards in one meeting and 235 yards in another last season. Although Mahomes has only thrown one passing touchdown in his previous three games, he should get back on track against Las Vegas.

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs lost a game was against the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day, 2023. The Raiders mocked Patrick Mahomes on social media and in the press. When reporters asked Mahomes for his thoughts on this, he said, "It will be addressed when it needs to be addressed." Mahomes is considered the best quarterback in the league and has extra motivation, which likely won't end well for Las Vegas. In that loss to the Raiders, he had 59 rushing yards and threw for 298 yards in one meeting and 235 yards in another last season. Although Mahomes has only thrown one passing touchdown in his previous three games, he should get back on track against Las Vegas.

Hunt is getting plenty of volume and with the pass game in transition and the OL having some pass pro issues and Maxx Crosby across the line of scrimmage, Hunt will get a heavy load. Raiders are last team to beat KC, last Christmas, and Chiefs got too cute in that game. Wouldn't be surprised to see him run 20 times or more for over 100 yards. Raiders are 26th vs the run and far better against the pass. Look for some heavy packages with 6 OL behind a back who is fresh and getting better every week.

The Chiefs are 30th in RZ offense since Week 10 of last season and Patrick Mahomes is having the worst season of his career by far and especially struggling to finish drives. So just give the ball to Hunt against a weak defense that has already allowed 9 rushing TDs. Hunt is 3rd in the NFL in carries since returning to KC, and is clearly the top back. He's scored 3 times in the last 2 games. With so much else not going right deep in the opponents territory and I don't see KC getting away from this now.