Neither team has played up to its potential through the first third of the season, though they remain among the best in the NFL. Any advantage the 49ers might have entering this game with home field and a revenge mindset coming out of the Super Bowl is negated by the Chiefs’ immense success under Andy Reid when off extra rest and preparation time. Each team is missing a starting RB, but while San Francisco has the better receiving weapons, it’s Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy every time. And Kansas City certainly has enough to take the Niners up and down the field. Wait until before kickoff and try to get +3.

Andy Reid's record coming off a bye week is well-documented. The Chiefs are in a tough spot with some key injuries, but San Francisco will once again be without All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. I was hoping to find this at +3 or better, but I'll still play at this number.

There's nothing that leaves you feeling excited laying points against a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs' team off a bye but here we are. Quite frankly I can't get to this short a price as my number makes this -3 (+100). The 49ers enter off a mini-bye with a more dynamic offense and healthier weapons than their counterparts, creating a path to victory they weren't afforded in the Super Bowl. While KC has answered the bell defensively, this will be the biggest test of their secondary facing George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, especially without some key defensive line depth in Mike Danna. The 49ers will need to slow down Travis Kelce but the potential injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster slows down a thin group even further.

I have been waiting to fade this Chiefs team, and this looks like the right spot. Although they are 5-0, Kansas City has won four of those games by one possession, two of which came with a ton of help from the referees. Their luck may run out against a 49ers defense that ranks 5th in defensive DVOA, and 3rd in overall pass defense DVOA. Mahomes still has a fairly thin offense around him without WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco. The 49ers have scored 30+ in all three of their wins. They are better than their 3-3 record, and will prove that when they get their revenge against the defending super bowl champs.

Deebo Samuel is dealing with a wrist injury but does not have a game designation. He should be heavily involved Sunday, for two reasons. Jauan Jennings (hip) is out, and Samuel almost always thrives against Cover 2 defenses. The Chiefs play that coverage 67 percent of the time, second-most in the NFL.

The Chiefs have not only had San Francisco's number in Super Bowls, they dominated regular-season meetings as well. This includes a 44-23 rout two seasons ago. San Francisco got a much-needed win in Seattle but this isn't a great spot with a banged-up backfield and WR room.

KC has performed a high-wire act en route to a perfect straight-up record. The Chiefs have outscored opponents by only 33 points, the smallest edge for a 5-0 squad in nearly two decades. While they have the benefit of a bye last week, the 49ers enjoyed a mini-bye, having played on Thursday -- and looked killer in a decisive win at Seattle. QB Patrick Mahomes has been dynamite in his career as an underdog. Still, t he better season so far belongs to counterpart Brock Purdy. He has tossed for the second most yards even while his main sidekicks have missed time with injuries. The debut of rookie WR Ricky Pearsall, recovered from a gunshot wound, adds motivation for the Niners.

In this Super Bowl rematch vs. the San Francisco 49ers, I'm looking for Patrick Mahomes to look to his go-to guy in the red zone, Travis Kelce. We know the Chiefs are depleted of true weapons and Kelce has gotten 19 targets in the last two games since the Chiefs lost Rashee Rice. I like him to get his first touchdown of the season in this much-anticipated game Sunday.

That very slow start is behind Kelce at this point. But his numbers still look pretty depressed to me. Despite all the issues with the Chiefs offense, Kelce is still a problem. Maybe not in the RZ where this offense is really broken, but between the 20s for sure. Kelce has 19 targets in the last two weeks and he has at least 70 yards in the past two and he will be fresh coming off a bye. He caught all 9 of his targets for 93 yards vs the 49ers in the Super Bowl. SF is allowing a 110.7 passer rating on passes to TEs this season, and 76% completions.

The Chiefs have been impressive thus far, but their two road wins were narrow escapes against the Falcons and a very banged up Chargers team. Now they travel to San Francisco with an offense that has too many spare parts to pull out a road win. Regression is coming for this Chiefs team and the 49ers are the right team to put that regression in play.

George Kittle enjoys playing at home with his wife in the stadium. He has exceeded this number in seven of his last ten home games. The Chiefs have allowed the second-most receiving yards (81.8 per game) against tight ends. Kansas City ranks fifth in run defense, allowing 88.4 yards per game, so the 49ers may need to throw more than usual. Kittle had 98 receiving yards on nine targets in a regular season home game against Kansas City in 2022. I agree with my colleague R.J. White on KC +1.5, but I am excited about Kittle's potential for a big receiving day. My model has this game spread at zero.

It's the biggest revenge spot of them all for the 49ers after losing last year's Super Bowl, but I expect Andy Reid will continue to have Kyle Shanahan's number here. The Chiefs are the healthier team coming out of their bye, which gives them a few extra days of rest and prep over the 49ers, who played last Thursday. The 49ers continue to have injuries up the middle of the defense, and they'll likely be down to a third-string safety in this game. They could also be down to a third-string RB if Jordan Mason can't go. Though the line is fair, I love catching points with the Chiefs off a bye in any situation where Patrick Mahomes is playing.

If this gets bet up, I'll jump back in, but KC has become a straight under team for me, and SF will be conservative with its approach even with a third string RB now. These teams were 19-19 thru regulation of SB. KC is 30th in RZ TDs since Jerick McKinnon got hurt Week 10 last season (38.9%). SF is 25th in RZ this season and KC in top 10 RZ D. KC's under margin of 4.7 points 5th largest in NFL. KC Road games avg 37.8 points since start of '23 (3rd lowest) with -6 margin (lowest in NFL by far). Andy Ried 6-2 to the under last 8 off bye. Mahomes 7-2 under in last 9 vs NFC, with avg score of 40.2.