There are multiple key developments: Nick Chubb returning for the Browns, Cleveland sending its only field-stretcher in Amari Cooper to Buffalo and the Bengals coming off a rough but dominant victory in primetime. The public is heavy on the Bengals, plus given how the Browns have dominated this series in Cleveland, I initially paused on playing. But it’s Joe Burrow over Deshaun Watson, especially with Cincinnati’s weapons, every day of the week (twice on Sunday). The Bengals defense is good enough to keep Watson on the struggle bus, and while Chubb may be back, I don’t believe the Browns can give him more than 10-15 carries as he works his way into the fold. Don’t love the number, but I’d rather be on Cincy’s side.

The Browns have dominated the Bengals in their past 3 meetings in Cleveland. Even though the Browns have taken a major step back and the Bengals are surging, we don't want to lay points with a club that is vulnerable to the pass rush and still has its own issues defensively. The return of Nick Chubb should inject some needed life into the stagnant Cleveland offense.

The Browns traded away their best receiver this week, making a bad passing attack worse. Nick Chubb returns but it'd be a surprise if he has a workhorse role in his season debut. If they don't have their best offensive day of the season against a Bengals defense that took a step forward last week against the Giants, they won't get over this total, which they've done once this year thanks to a late safety. The Browns have scored just seven offensive TDs all year, including two in the last three games against questionable Vegas, Washington and Philly defenses. As long as Joe Burrow doesn't give up easy points, this Under should get home pretty easily.

The Browns' defense has been rather unfriendly to Burrow of late, holding him to 232, 239, and 82 passing yards in their last three meetings. Only Jalen Hurts last week (264) has surpassed this number against Cleveland this year and to me, this line seems about 15 yards too high. Expect Jim Schwartz's defense to pressure Burrow and give him fits once again.

Joe Burrow is not so great vs the numbers at home, but he is an assassin on the road. And the Bengals defense has serious issues, which gives me pause, but the Browns defense is not NFL-worthy. We are talking 27 offensive TDs produced in Deshaun Watson’s 18 games played there. We’re talking 3.9 yards/play and a 19% third-down conversion rate this season. Browns D is more good than great this season. Bengals attack is top notch. Burrow is 24-11 ATS on the road and 12-4 on road as a favorite. Their defense is perhaps finally taking these games seriously, too. Browns might be quitting soon. What an abject failure of a franchise they are.